Four years ago this week, The Warning published its first essay:
Fair Winds and Following Seas
Her Master is a woman. She commands an American warship, a 44-gun United States Class heavy frigate, personally named by George Washington.
I had no idea where it would lead.
I knew only that the country was entering dangerous territory, and that I wanted to create a place where events could be explained honestly, placed in historical context, and examined without fear, favor or partisan tribalism.
Four years later, The Warning has become something I never imagined.
It’s become a community.
Before anything else, I want to thank you.
Thank you to everyone who has read an essay, watched a commentary, shared a piece with a friend, challenged an argument, or simply kept coming back.
Most of all, thank you to those who have been here since the beginning. You believed in this project before there was any reason to believe it would succeed. Your encouragement, loyalty and trust made everything that followed possible.
I also want to thank our paid subscribers.
Following our first anniversary, we made the decision to provide 100% of The Warning content for free.
Every essay and video commentary is free.
That has been intentional.
An informed citizenry should never be limited by the ability to afford a subscription.
That model exists because thousands of readers voluntarily support this work. Their generosity makes it possible for everyone else to read every essay without a paywall.
To each of you, thank you.
Your support has sustained something increasingly rare: an independent publication.
There’s no corporate owner behind The Warning. No billionaire benefactor. No one deciding what can or can’t be written except me.
That independence matters.
At a time when much of American media is constrained by commercial pressures, shrinking newsrooms, political access, or the relentless demand for attention, independent journalism and commentary have become indispensable.
A healthy democracy depends on citizens who have access to honest reporting, thoughtful analysis and voices that are free to follow the facts wherever they lead.
That’s always been the mission of The Warning.
Not to predict the future, and not to chase outrage, but to help readers understand where the country is headed — and why.
Over the last four years, readers have watched many of those analyses prove correct.
From the earliest days of The Warning, I argued that Trumpism was not a passing political moment, but an authoritarian movement. I warned that political violence wouldn’t disappear after January 6. In fact, in September of 2020, I predicted that violence would come. In one of my very first essays, I warned that a Trump-Biden rematch would be a national catastrophe. I argued that America’s alliances would come under sustained pressure, that democratic institutions would face escalating attacks, and that indifference posed as great a danger to the republic as extremism.
Those essays were never written to be able to say, “I told you so.” They were written because recognizing danger early is the first step toward confronting it.
The work ahead is every bit as important as the work behind us.
Moving forward, The Warning will continue covering the defining political story of our time.
We’ll continue to examine America’s history not as an exercise in nostalgia, but as a guide to the challenges ahead.
We’ll continue to look beyond tomorrow’s headlines to explain the larger forces shaping our politics, our institutions and our democracy.
We’ll continue to search for and talk to leaders whose character, courage and ideas deserve the country’s attention.
Above all, we’ll remain fiercely independent.
If The Warning has informed you, challenged you, or helped you better understand this extraordinary moment in American history, I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Your subscription does far more than support my work.
It helps ensure that every essay remains free for everyone who wants to read it.
It allows this publication to remain independent of corporate ownership, political influence and commercial pressure.
Most importantly, it helps ensure that The Warning can continue to grow, reach new readers and continue this work through the midterm elections, the 2028 presidential election and beyond.
The stakes for the country are simply too high to stop now.
Finally, I want to leave you with this.
The best part of The Warning has never been the essays.
It’s been the people.
This community has proven that there is still an audience for serious ideas, civil disagreement, historical perspective and moral clarity.
That gives me hope.
Thank you for your trust.
Thank you for your friendship.
Thank you for helping build this remarkable community.
Four years ago, The Warning began with a single essay.
Tomorrow morning, we’ll publish another one.
The work continues.
