107 Comments

A few considerations before I pack up and leave for g-d knows where

Election is 12 months away

Economy is strong

Inflation weak

Will have 1 maybe 3 interest rate cuts starting in February

Gas prices, beef, chicken, eggs all falling

Israel will be off front pages

Infrastructure activity will peak

Hot summer and fires, brown outs in tx, will bring attention to climate

More stories of botched abortions of young girls

Mass shootings will occur

The majority of Americans in middle America do not pay attention until the ads start, Trump is defined, Biden is as old,

OLD BEATS FASCIST, RACIST, HOMOPHOBE, ANTI SEMITE, PRO GUN AND MAN WHO SINGLE HANDILY TOOK AWAY CHOICE FROM WOMEN AND THEIR MEN IN AMERICA.

I like these facts, if I’m wrong I’m leaving with Barbra S

All of this is moot if he suffers injury or illness in next 12 months and there is still a 30% shot newsom is on top of ticket

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Well said. And young people and women are not going to vote for the side that took reproductive freedom away/ we need to keep that issue out front.

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Will they vote? In the numbers needed? Will they counter others? I cried as I read what Kagan and what Steve wrote. Too old, too poor to leave, will others like me consider other outs?

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You nailed it in a most concise way! Bravo.

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Keep dreaming like that and remember to write it down so you can include it in your next fiction novel.

The corporate news is not really reporting on the economic storm brewing. Get ready for Great Recession Lite coming soon to a theater near you. Yes, even you in your coastal liberal gated upper class communities.

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This "Great Recession" you speak of sure is taking a long time coming. I'm starting to wonder if it's gonna show up at all.

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There has been a lag as their always is. I work in commercial real estate lending and business has slowed to a crawl with properties failing to appraise for the selling price. Consumer credit is maxed out. Banks are pulling up their lending operations. It has taken a while for all of these things to build, and now we are seeing the crash starting. Good timing for the Democrats, don't you think?

Your news feeds are not reporting these things because your new feeds are just feeding you feel-good stories.

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This guy is really getting old.

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Goldman Sachs’s latest prediction 15% chance of recession

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There are perennial bulls and bears and none are wrong all of the time.

There is no question office prop has issues and it will take time to shake out, however given the length of the leases and the quality of tenants it will be a slow walking decline. This is not 2008, there is no aig enhancing junk quality derivatives.

Only thing W ever did right (probably would be in top 5 worst POTUS) was getting Obama be the face and lead on TARP during lame duck. TARP actually was profitable for govt and saved banking, auto, manufacturing from total collapse.

Want to read the cause of ‘08/‘09 read Hank Greenberg’s book and why the collapse was caused by a pos who became a disgraced governor Spitzer and his phony indictments which pushed Hank out and put in non insurance people who created the London unit that wrote all of these derivative enhancements, also btw shareholders of aig, citi, b of a are still in the red.

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You mean the Democrat Wall Street company that was the favorite bail out target in 2008? Just like the time leading up to 2008, the crash is coming from an over-heated real estate market... it has already started.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2023/10/california-budget-whiplash-pitfalls-forecasting/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a6Wnw1ZMgs

Peter Schiff... the only economic professional that got the Great Recession right and was called a fool by the likes of Goldman Sachs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubHehecl40E

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I read Kagan’s piece yesterday in the Washington Post. I agree wholeheartedly with his analysis. He nailed it, and if anyone still has reservations as to the dystopian future that awaits all of us should the Orange Mussolini ever take office again; they won’t have reservations any longer.

That said, when a perennial neo-con, who never met a war he didn’t like, tells you our democracy is standing at a precipice, we definitely should listen. And like Steve, this op-ed is one of the best I have ever read regarding a second Trump term. Please read it if you haven’t already done so.

That said, It doesn’t, however, excuse the fact that Kagan was war monger and one of the architects of the Iraq War. He was a founding member of the Project for the New American Century (think tank), along with Bill Kristol, Dick Cheney, Wolfowitz and Feith that posited that in order to invade Iraq, America would need to experience a Pearl Harbor style event, in order to galvanize the American people for a protracted, manufactured war, based on nothing but American ambition and power.

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founding

Robert, I have followed Steve and others for years now. I spend at least 2 hours a day reading the news. I have not for one second taken for granted that Trump could be president again. When he was elected in 2016, I was shocked, and then depressed. I don't think I read a paper or watched the news for an entire 9 or 10 months as a reaction to him being elected.

With all I know and all I've read, watched and heard of the last 7 years, the Kagan piece just wrecked me. Wrecked me. I am at a loss as to what to do. I vote, I donate, I canvass, but I feel there is nothing i can do to stop this short of something happening to him or Biden. You can't argue any point Kagan made with any real substance. What do we do over the next 11 months!? Move to a blue state? Put you money into gold bars? Liz Cheney and others have coined this phrase "we are sleep-walking into a dictatorship". I've been awake for 7 years... not sleepwalking. We need next steps - and talking to your neighbor can't be the only thing.

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Yes. Kagan was. Does that make what he wrote more or less accurate? Maybe predictive is the better word?

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Not at all. I said as much. In fact, I said it was the best analysis I’ve read. My point was that if a neo-con like Kagan fears that a dystopian future in store for us, then we should pay attention....:)

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As “The Economist” has written in its section “The World Ahead 2024”, “The odds of a second Trump term are alarmingly high. The consequences could be catastrophic --- for democracy and for the world”.

It is not only Americans who need to worry --- It is All of us who love democracy and care about the world.

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I agree, the world will suffer greatly, while the tyrants rejoice.

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Sorry. Really. I wasn’t challenging you - more reflecting about how we view comments depending on the source. Thanks.

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No need to apologize. Youn make a good point, and feel free to challenge anytime you like. I’m not thin skinned, and that’s how we learn. I’m wrong a lot...:)

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Thanks. Lots today challenging each other and Steve. Full moon??

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Sorry for the rant. It’s just frustrating that the people don’t really understand what’s coming. The USA has never had a dictator. People don’t believe it could have. Instead of uniting against, they are complacent.

The adults that were in the room should be out there telling everyone the danger Trump poses. There is a majority of people that want democracy but are unwilling to fight for it. This is a fight for the soul of this country. So Democratic Party do your job!

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We did come very close: Bush/Cheney!...:)

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You mean the "hanging chads" Bush/Cheney with the backing of SCOTUS against Gore? That Bush/Cheney?

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That too, but I meant a manufactured war.

In addition, The Patriot Act that was 2,000 pages long, yet commissioned and passed in just two weeks. Torture programs, illegal spying; as we learned through Snowden. Extrajudicial killings of Americans alleged to be terrorists without due process, and locking away alleged terrorists at Guantanamo for decades, without providing any evidence or a trial.

Also, threatening the press when they printed the truth about the intelligence for the war, as well as destroying the lives of whistleblowers who came forward; charging them with espionage, which didn’t allow them to put on a defense, or see any of the evidence used to arrest them. Of course all the whistleblower cases and charges would be drop against these individuals, but only after years of legal battles, and loss of their savings and government pensions, as well as damage to their reputations that would be beyond repair.

Not to mention, National Security Letters to web and telephone companies to handover private citizen information without a warrant; by the DOJ and FBI which didn’t allow the recipient to even discuss the letter with their lawyers or anyone else in the country.

You know, banana republic stuff.

The only difference between Trump and Cheney is Trump and his minions telegraph their actions, and don’t seem to care. Cheney and his extremely efficient and capable team, managed to pull it off without most of us even knowing what was happening until it was too late...:)

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Agree with all you say, Robert, but I've been watching a long, slow slide away from democracy for years. When corporate interests (aided by the GOP) become paramount rather than the interests of citizens, it's a short fall to oligarchy/fascism. The concept of "privatization" being superior to gov't. run entities is a prime example of turning the interests of the public against itself.

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So don't help Trump by whittling away at Biden's support, Steve.

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The fact that Donald Trump is winning should not be surprising. Why shouldn’t he be. His lies and hostile rhetoric is echo everywhere and by multiple sources. No Republican will speak against, other than those retiring. Trumps hate is amplified on Fox, OAN and so on without criticism.

Democrats are hiding in a bunker someplace providing very little to no resistance. Where is Chuck Schumer? Where is Hakeem Jeffries? Adam Schiff? Katie Porter? AOC? The Democratic Party is providing no push back. Biden can do it alone. Democrats are tone deaf. The party is totally inept when it comes to messaging. The head of the Democratic Party should be replaced immediately. . I’m waiting for the first democrat to stand up and call Trump a liar, mentally unstable, and the threat to democracy.

Their hair should be on fire. The Lincoln Project did the fighting for the democrats in 2020. They seem to have disappeared.

The only one saying anything is a frail old man. Not even Harris is out there fighting to keep our democracy.

A tornado is coming, we all know it, and the democrats answer is to hide in a basement. God help us in 2025.

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The Lincoln Project is still very active.

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Yes the Lincoln Project is still fighting to save us from Trump. I donate what I can to them monthly to keep them in the fight. They were effective in 2020 and I hope they will be in 2024.

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Quietly active!?! Sent them a nice check and never heard a peep!

WAKE up World!

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My maternal grandmother (z”l) used to say “see the pretty birdie” when something unpleasant was going on. Her goal was to change the subject, not to correct anything. That’s what it all feels like - let’s just pretend it’s not so terrifying. But let’s not correct it; just talk about something else.

Who can be the message carriers? The megaphones? Do the majority of trump supporters and voters ever hear The Lincoln Project or hear the messages louder than the lies?

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Dec 2, 2023·edited Dec 3, 2023

Steve, all due respect. I love you, I read everything you write and publish. I revere you. But how about starting with what YOU are going to do? I respectfully submit and suggest that you END your participation in the fool's errand that is the Phillips campaign immediately and start doing EVERYTHING IN YOUR POWER to support WHOEVER the Democratic nominee is. Right now, the Dem nominee is President Joseph R. Biden. Why weaken him???? It's funny how everyone has their hair on fire about the oligarchy, plutocracy, cronyism and the disregard that the political, beltway and ruling class in congress and in the press have for the rest of us, which makes up about 95% of the American public. So why back another MILLIONAIRE? That's exactly what we DON'T need. Phillips’ campaign is almost dead in the water. If it isn't already. As I've said before, he's less popular than COVID and head lice. I'm not trying to needle you. I'm trying to wake you up to the fact that the old rules are no longer relevant. Polling in this country and in this age is COMPLETELY BROKEN. Trump is winning? He had SEVERAL VERY SIGNIFICANT LOSSES in court all week this week? The system is holding the line and will hold if right wing billionaires and politicians no longer have the spine or love of country to do so. There are SO MANY MORE OF US in the center and to the left. WE GOT THIS. We have to roll up our sleeves and ELECT THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE. REBUKE THIS HORSESHIT that is what's left of the Republican Party and stop listening to GOP Never Trumpers unless they are ready to hit the pavement, open up their checkbooks and get to work (as you and many of your colleagues did in 2020) to ELECT or RE-ELECT the Democratic Party's nominee. I don't care if Eleanor Roosevelt's DEAD DOG is the nominee. If the name has a D after it, I'm doing everything in my power to ensure that that person gets the most votes. Dean Phillips aint it. These are not the droids you are looking for. Time to go home and rethink your life. Get behind the NOMINEE, whoever it is. Otherwise you are weakening our chances of prevailing. Right now, that nominee is JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN, Jr. I send this with love and respect. You are a man of principle and one of the great thinkers of our time. Let's get busy. Signed your fellow, New Jersey native, Jody

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Steve has the right to back whomever he chooses, BUT he must see that he is becoming part of the problem when we need his eloquence and knowledge used on behalf of Biden, not against. It is crucial.

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Amen

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Thanks, Jody, for what you've written here. Please keep speaking out on this.

Steve Schmidt: Fight MAGA, not Biden!!

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Thank you.

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Why beg **him?

He's lost his mojo.

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Yes, I know. We know. How could we not? My circle fully comprehends the possibility of a dictator as our President. We are inundated with reminders daily from every direction.

Am I/we supposed to stop and drop our hope for life, liberty and the pursuit of our happiness, dreams and goals because one man has overtaken and subdued a party who knowingly allowed his ruse?

I am not a data point. I am a living breathing sentient human being who has her own life problems to solve right now.

This American is tired of the "Chicken Littles" shouting constantly, consistently and incessantly that we are doomed.

I have no doubt we are learning to play the game of politics, pundits, secrets and surveys.

I have no doubt that I/we will rise to the occasion and the October surprise will be we the people.

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Thank you Rose Anne Everson. I am in your corner. I might add that there is a tremendous number of grass roots organizers right now working tirelessly behind the scenes. And in my busy life, I can find time to pitch in to keep our democracy intact. You never hear about any of that on legacy media; but you have heard of all the democratic wins in the recent off year elections, followed by the disbelief of those news reporters that predict otherwise. Those grass roots organizations are instrumental in this fight and it's something we as individuals can do to fight for our country.

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Right On!! Thanks.

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🤞

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Amen.

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thanks I wish I was not as cynical. Thanks for the message of hope.

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Looks like Americans are “ the frog in the pot of slowly boiling water!” People are more interested in who wins athletic games than who is best to lead our nation! I can just hear the words being spoken in 2025,” why didn’t anyone tell us about fascism coming to America?” The frog just boiled to death!

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Sports is the opiate of the people. Fascism is not coming to America, it is already here. If we could get rid of the stupid, unfair Electoral Collage then we could have a real democracy.

The woman will save this country.

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Bravo 👍. This was a masterpiece 😘

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You keep saying that Biden wants Trump to run. I see no evidence of that. Biden does not select his opponent. Please stop saying that he does.

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I agree Gisele. Steve keeps making these assumptions about what Biden wants.

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I, too, read Kagan’s column. I’ve never been a fan of Kagan and his philosophical kinfolks’ hegemonic inclinations but his longtime animosity to Trump is deep. I join Robert Jaffe in his praise and recommendation of the piece and also recommend a similar warning he wrote, again in the Washington Post, in the spring of 2016 entitled “This Is How Fascism Comes To America” You get one guess to name the antagonist in that essay. Good morning to all.

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Forgive me if I said this before but I am always reminded of these lines in Casablanca:

"Sam: Yeah, boss?

Rick: If it's December 1941 in Casablanca, what time is it in New York?

Sam: Uh, my watch stopped.

Rick: I bet they're asleep in New York. I bet they're asleep all over America."

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WOW!!!

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My dad used to say “ the only good Nazi is a dead Nazi” which judging by today’s standards could include a whole lot of folks previously thought not to be dangerous. Free range Nazis seem to be popping up everywhere, insidiously, stealthily. 🤬

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I listened to my gun-fetishist, Trump-loving, red-in-blue state in-laws talk incessantly about “tyranny” over many Thanksgiving dinners.

Little did I suspect the tyranny would ever be on me.

And you.

.

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All you freakin' downers gaslighting me, STOP IT! Biden's old, so am I. So what. We both have all our original marbles, eat healthily to stay active and alert and haven't reached our expiration date. The other guy is a freakin' physical and mental train wreck. Even his beloved evangelical leaders are telling him to drop dead. Former GOP'ers with a smidgen of active brain function are denouncing the monster. However, I caution all liberals that although we may agree with those former GOP'ers re: the f'n idiot, they are still GOP'ers at heart and we are NOT alike in our world views. Why are they not supporting Biden? Simple---Kamela. They're terrified of a black woman becoming prez.

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I agree absolutely. Kamela Harris is a liability. I wonder how much the Biden ticket would get a boost if someone else were on it. I would guess a huge boost. I’m not sure who that would be though. I think she should withdraw from the ticket.

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Jody has it right.

Get behind Joe Biden.

That is the correct and winning way to defeat Trump.

Messaging is the biggest problem.

And that’s what you do.

At the singular most important moment in your political life, you’ve chosen to hurt the only winning hand.

An old NJ expression,”wake up and die right”.

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Right On, RHS! Thanks.

Steve Schmidt: Fight MAGA, not Biden!!

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I would love to start hearing about strategies to combat what is on the way rather than just doom and gloom. Let's start a dialogue about what we can do.

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