Ukraine expects North Korean forces will be sent to Russia's Kursk region

Ukraine's intelligence, North Korean spies they have caught in years past, and thoughts from a defector who trained with North Korea's special forces

A memorial to soldiers at the Mansudae Grand Monument in North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang, in 2012. (Nicor)

“In Ukraine, nobody panics,” a diplomat says when I ask him about North Korean troops heading to Russia. He is one of two Ukrainian officials that tell me North Korea’s special forces are likely to be sent to Kursk, the region in Western Russia that Ukrainian forces have held since August. The assessment comes from Ukraine’s military intelligence service (GUR), from human sources and signals intelligence.

“What we have heard is that the Russians, they are waiting for North Korea and they are preparing places for them,” the diplomat said. Pyongyang’s deployment follows a mutual defense treaty signed in June by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Then came South Korea's National Intelligence Service warning last week that 1,500 North Korean special forces were heading to Russian military bases. 

Finally, the U.S. is confirming troops were sent. “There is evidence of DPRK troops in Russia,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday. “What exactly they're doing is left to be seen.”

The Ukrainian diplomat talked about capturing them, “just to kidnap a few of them” as they arrive on the battlefield, “as many as we can as soon as possible.” He thinks it could accelerate South Korean support, especially now that Seoul is threatening to send offensive and defensive weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s dispatch. The diplomat expects some 12,000 North Koreans to eventually arrive, more than President Volodymyr Zelensky’s alert of 10,000. 

Intelligence sharing between Ukraine and South Korea isn’t new, but it increased once North Korea got involved in Putin’s war — first with shipments of artillery shells and then ballistic missiles. “Since the time [North] Korea first used a ballistic missile, the South Koreans were very interested,” said the official. 

Yet years before Russia’s 2022 and 2014 invasions, Ukraine was catching North Korean spies. In 2012, two North Koreans were convicted for allegedly photographing blueprints and papers on new missile and rocket fuel supply systems, caught red-handed. 

At least two more cases went undisclosed until now: in 2011, a North Korean Army officer was arrested in the city of Kharkiv for trying to collect intelligence on air-to-ground missiles — missiles now being used by Russia on Ukrainians today, according to the diplomat. In 2012, a North Korean diplomat serving at the country’s embassy in Moscow was arrested for trying to buy parts to make a small nuclear bomb during a trip to Ukraine. Both were eventually exchanged on unclear conditions, the diplomat said.

I asked him if the prospect of 1,500 North Koreans on the battlefield is troubling. “When both parties are exhausted, then probably North Korean involvement can help them have some tactical improvement,” he said. “But I don't think it can be a game changer.”

They will probably fight better than the Russians who were mobilized or incentivized by money, he says. But nobody knows until they see them in combat. “I don't think that any special forces have significant skill with the type of environment we have now in Ukraine,” he said. “They were never prepared for such a war.”

According to a 2021 Defense Intelligence Agency report, North Korea’s special operations forces train in unconventional warfare following founder Kim Il Sung’s principles. Their doctrine focuses on speed of movement and surprise attack among units that include reconnaissance, airborne and seaborne insertion, and commando squads. More than 200,000 special forces personnel are divided into brigades of 3,000 to 5,000 members, regiments, and battalions.

North Korean defector Hyun Seung Lee at a Center for Strategic and International Studies forum in 2023. (Courtesy Hyun Seung Lee)

The North Koreans supporting Russia are likely from the main special operations forces unit, the XI Army, nicknamed the “Storm Corps,” North Korean defector Hyun Seung Lee tells me. He trained alongside them for six months in 2004, while serving in the military from 2002 to 2005. The former sergeant described the training as “hard and stressful.”

He says Storm Corps forces “are taller and better trained” than regular North Korean soldiers and they “specialize in operations such as enemy disruption, sabotage, territorial control, and assassinations of key figures.” But they are no match for the special forces of other nations. “They fall short due to insufficient equipment, food, and training.” 

I asked him if we would eventually hear stories of defection and he said it is likely if the fighting intensifies. “Ukraine is an unfamiliar environment for them, and most of these troops have no real combat experience, making them more prone to surrender or desertion in the heat of battle. Moreover, they lack both motivation and any reason to fight to the death.”

And then there is the context. Hyun Seung says the average salary for North Korean officers is less than a dollar per month. Soldiers make less than 50 cents per month. Their families back in North Korea won’t receive any benefits.

“The Ukrainian government, along with other nations, should actively encourage and support their pursuit of freedom,” he told me. “I believe that the voices of former North Korean soldiers, if communicated directly to these troops, could genuinely resonate and inspire them to seek a new path.” Such information could factor into Ukrainian influence operations.

Does that mean a real risk for Kim? What’s in it for him to send North Korean ammunition, ballistic missiles, and now men to Russia? Experts fear he not only gets access to Russian nuclear weapons technology, oil, and development funds. He will get to see how his special forces perform on the battlefield — information that would be valuable in a potential conflict with South Korea. 

“I hoped this was just a rumor,” Hyun Seung confided to me. But the accents and behavior of men in recently released video footage were unmistakable to him. “Seeing them in this state was deeply upsetting,” he said. “It’s heartbreaking to witness these young men losing their lives in a foreign land for no meaningful cause.” 

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