Turbulence ahead

PLUS: Monuments of idiocy: Trump’s VP contenders are shameful

There are 180 days to go until Election Day.

The Republican National Convention will come to order on July 15, 2024, while the Democratic Party’s quadrennial gathering is slated for August 19, 2024.

The home stretch will be in sight before most Americans begin to tune into the election choice they didn’t want, and don’t like. Yet, this election is more important than any other in American history with the exceptions of three, which are its peers: 1864, 1940 and 2020.

The choice is between a moral man and an immoral man. It is between an honest man and a corrupt man. It is between a patriotic man and a domestic enemy, who attacked the nation. It is between a president and a seditionist. It is between an American and a fascist.

It is an epic choice, and both sides are “all in,” as they say.

There are two finite commodities that every political campaign must manage successfully: time and money. The days are passing quickly.

There are six realities which remain stable from day to day that must be reckoned with:

1. Donald Trump continues to be ahead in the race. He would handily win the Electoral College if the election was to be held tomorrow. Many of you will push back and say that you don’t believe the polls. What happens in the swing states will decide the election. In my view and based on my experience, this data is concerning.

2. Should he lose, Donald Trump will never concede the 2024 election.

3. The American people do not believe the economy is good. Period.

4. Generally speaking, the American people do not have any idea what the following are, and if they do, they don’t believe they are working:
   A. CHIPS and Science Act
   B. Inflation Reduction Act  
   C. American Rescue Plan and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law

5. There is no evidence whatsoever that the criminal trials have done anything to harm Trump politically. Embarrassing him should not be mistaken for political injury.

6. The Biden White House has a communications crisis on its hands that is in the words of a former vice president, “A big fucking deal.”

The most frequent advice that I have dispensed over my political and corporate consulting career has been the following:

People drown because they panic, not because they can’t swim. Panic never helps, but neither does an aloof numbness towards the events that are swirling about.

During my career, I have advised presidents, vice presidents, speakers of the House and various parliaments, opposition leaders, prime ministers, quarterbacks, movie stars, CEOs, media moguls and others to remember that there are no bad questions, only bad answers in an interview.

I’m going to show you a terrible answer from President Biden during his interview last night with CNN heavy hitter Erin Burnett. Before I do, I want to go a bit deeper with the advice I give people before they sit in front of the camera, which holds true across all of life.

There are only three types of questions ever asked: “I feel,” “I know,” and “I think” ones.

All bad answers result from a misalignment of question and answer by category. For example, when a political leader is asked an “I feel” question, and answers with “I know,” they risk looking cold and indifferent towards regular people. The most vivid example is this moment from the 1992 presidential debate when President Bush argued about an economic term, and Governor Clinton felt the pain:

Here was Biden’s response to Erin Burnett about the economy:

The Biden Administration’s economic message is an argument with the American people based on the premise that Wall Street indicators will improve their mood. It won’t work.

Neither will the “less is more” approach outlined in this story:

The less-is-more approach aims for quality over quantity when it comes to the president’s public appearances, aides said.

“There’s a strategic advantage at this point in the race to boiling down your message to the three or four most salient, compelling arguments for why President Biden should be re-elected,” said TJ Ducklo, the Biden campaign’s senior adviser for communications. “That will often translate to the stump [speech] being whittled down to its sharpest, most dynamic form. That’s what you’re seeing.”

The approach also has the appearance of a strategy aimed at minimizing the potential for Biden to make mistakes in a razor-close election. Some of Biden’s verbal missteps have occurred when he’s talking at length, veers off the prepared text or answers a reporter’s question when that wasn’t part of the plan.

Shorter, crisper remarks from Biden are part of his campaign’s broader strategy of having him appear more in smaller settings that the president’s aides believe serve him better than large, traditional rallies with voters.

In fact, felony stupid doesn’t begin to describe this approach. Because the appearances are rare, like diamonds, each becomes very valuable. In fact, they become existential events during which the whole ball game is on the line with each question inflated by restrictions on access to absurd importance. This isn’t the media’s fault. It is that of the Biden campaign, and it is caused by deep worry over Biden’s capacities by a staff who incorrectly think it is their job to cocoon the commander in chief in a thick bubble to protect him. The result is quite the opposite. It asphyxiates him.

The election will be razor close, and everything matters.

Here is a bit of caution for Democrats:

I’m old enough to remember the extremely tawdry midterm election of 1998 when two of the most extraordinary hypocrites in American history — Ken Starr and Newt Gingrich — foisted an impeachment on the country and made sure every sordid detail of a president’s peccadilloes were front and center for the country.  No doubt, the country didn’t appreciate it, but the important thing to remember is who they punished for it.

They punished the people who put the cigar story in their faces 24/7, not the person who put the cigar in places that made the story.

Take whatever wisdom you will from that, but it’s an important thing to understand.

The president should remember that the American people are always right — especially when they are wrong. Leading them is the job, not arguing with them.

The communications game is not good enough to win. It’s a good thing there are 181 days left. A lot can happen in a school year.

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Monuments of idiocy: Trump’s VP contenders are shameful

These are the best Republicans Donald Trump has to choose from for a running mate? The puppy killer and political liar from South Dakota, Governor Kristi Noem, won't take responsibility for lying in her new book. And, Senator Tim Scott is pissing on the grave of the Unknown Soldier by denying a free and fair election. I call out the threats to America in an effort to preserve democracy:

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