This post reminds me of MacBeth: "A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." On many days and many topics, Mr. Schmidt, you are eloquent, incisive and very informative. But not today. All your historical analogues signify nothing. Sadly, the only one that occurs to me is your part in launching not only Sarah Palin on the country, but, ultimately, the insanity and criminality and recklessness of Donald Trump and MAGAworld. If we must search for an historical analogue for today, I would propose that it be FDR's candidacy for a fourth term in 1944. He wasn't 81, but he was in a helluva lot worse shape than is Joe Biden today. Indeed, I suspect (and there are even today whisperings that suggest) those in his inner circle knew he was not long for this world. Biden is our man, our leader, our Trump-antidote and we have only one duty in the circumstances. Face it, accept it and get behind it firmly, energetically and with all the commitment of our collective beings we have. The time for breast-beating, useless oratory and empty rhetoric is long past. Protect the country from the horror, the cancer and the existential threat that is Trump and MAGAworld.
On the basis that you’ve referred to me as an “idiot,” this comment doesn’t warrant a response.
However, there are some facts that I feel compelled to state:
1. I played an enormous role in electing Biden to the presidency, by starting a group that had more than $3 billion in advertising impact on the race. For that, my life was threatened by Trump. I was forced to move from my home. Boxes of human feces were sent to my house, and I was smeared by Democratic political operatives in DC that said that the effort didn’t matter, and had no impact. Further, I was accused of being personally corrupt, a grifter and a pedophile.
2. I have written extensively about Sarah Palin. I did not select her. John McCain did.
I take enormous offence to you stating that I played a part in “launching…the insanity and criminality and recklessness of Donald Trump and MAGAworld.” I have put my life — and that of my family — on the line to defeat Trump and Trumpism for nine very long years. Every. Single. Day. Trump is the threat to America, and in my view, Biden can’t defeat him.
Steve, your first point was spot on: he doesn’t deserve a response.
We all know how committed you are to our democracy, and saving it from some very nefarious actors. You’ve been on the frontlines, warning us of the dangers of MAGA, and have been a great history professor to all of us who read your newsletter religiously.
Today’s newsletter is no different. Excellent, and I agree wholeheartedly…:)
A Word in Defense of Mike: In all fairness, he didn't call you an idiot. He made an analogy, he engaged in some snark. He also said very positive things about your work. I do think the criticism about responsibility for Trump was over the top, but I think--and I'm sorry, Mike, if this isn't what you meant--he might have been referring to what Tim Miller and Stuart Stevens wrote about, a kind of collective Republican guilt for where we are now. You and I have been on the outs before on this substack. You just don't know how terrible it feels to be singled out in writing by someone of your stature, who really we all look up to, for what the writer, right or wrong, thought was a snarky, but fair, post. A lot of us don't agree with you about Biden's prospects, but the fact we are where we are is due to ignorance, not Biden's bad debate.
My intention is never to single people out within this community. And, I didn't consider our exchange to mean that we were "on the outs." After having been held responsible and smeared for John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin for 14 years, I made the decision several years ago that I need to set the record straight when there is misinformation circulated about me.
Perhaps, but the “Palin” reference was unwarranted. No one here except Steve has ever worked on a presidential campaign, where every day presents a new controversy, or catastrophe, and every decision is high stakes, and highly intense; where sometimes your only options are bad ones, or worse ones.
We shouldn’t be reprising past issues in this discussion, whether we agree with Steve’s position or not.
It’s a discussion that is necessary, and the solution remains unresolved; for now!…:)
I agree about Palin. Hopefully, Mike will read Steve's article about it. But he did not call Steve an idiot, and he did praise Steve's body of work. A lot of us think it is way too late to replace Biden, and the result would be catastrophic. This discussion which you believe we must have I believe is a waste of time and counterproductive. And here we are.
I reread it, and agree, It wasn’t a personal insult.
And you may be right about Biden, but you may also be wrong. We still have time before the convention to make a change. If we don’t have the discussion, then we definitely won’t have an option should Biden’s cognitive dissonance decline further.
Can you guarantee Biden is fine and can carry on with his duties? He certainly isn’t inspiring anyone, which is also part of his job description. Trump’s team is galvanized like never before. Thursday was the greatest morale booster Trump has ever received and he is milking it for every last drop.
My point, these are legitimate questions that need to be answered. And I certainly would want a plan B, because another spectacle like Thursday night, could prove more than fatal; it could be a complete death kneel for our republic.
I do not think it is remotely feasible to change candidates now, and I do believe Biden is fine, because he's there doing the job every day. Not one White House insider has said, "The President is senile.
He's addled. Can't cut it any more." And you know they'd run with it if that happened. No, Fox and the New York Post have to reverse engineer the "evidence."
Well, I certainly would have felt that I was called an idiot. Let's review:
"This post reminds me of MacBeth: 'A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.'"
He's not only calling Steve an idiot, but he's also saying his post says absolutely nothing of value. You can gentle it up by calling it an analogy or snark, but it's bluntly mean spirited. It's ironic that Mike says Steve is saying nothing, for how does this comment add anything at all to the discussion?
Also, Management 101 tells us to *never* lead with a criticism, especially one this harsh. By the time Mike got to his compliments, Steve's ears were completely shut, and so were mine.
Well said. Plus the “Palin” remark was uncalled for. It only adds insult to injury and serves no purpose. To blame Steve for that decision when we all know it was a “Hail Mary” moment because McCain was losing the race is ludicrous. McCain made the decision, Steve was one of many advisors.
“Not one White House insider has said, "The President is senile.”
True, but “senile” isn’t what I’m hearing. He has lots of senior moments. And what happens if they start to occur at say the G-7? Or at a press conference?
The problem is we don’t know the extent of his cognitive decline, but we do know that whoever was on stage on Thursday night, was not a man in full command of his faculties.
I spent most of my career in high finance. I’ve learned a long time ago that hedging one’s bet isn’t only prudent, it’s crucial!…:)
The question of this hour of looming doom is not whether Joe Biden has been, and can be for another four years, an excellent president, but rather whether he can win re-election. Lamentably and realistically, he cannot. So grow up and grow some cajones, patriotic, anti-Trump, anti-fascist Americans and choose the most powerful candidate with the best chance to eviscerate Trump and his cult to preclude them from transforming America’s democratic republic into a totalitarian state.
Jesus Christ the testosterone is too much. It's not about your pedigree. It's about whether you are right or wrong that someone else - this close to November- could survive political scrutiny, inspire the country, and articulate a reason why they are running instead of Harris without alienating the black vote. Turn your prodigious force of analysis to that essential question please because it is- without hyperbole- the only question that matters.
What would it take for Biden supporters to understand the gravity of the moment? Repeated Mitch McConnell petit mal seizures, falling down the steps to the debate platform, uttering gibberish on national television, a coma…is there anything short of death that would give an inkling of the need to tac towards realism? Imagine the turbid waters ahead for an already feeble captain at the helm who will be five years older, not younger, at the conclusion of his 2nd term.
1. Gotta say, you don't respond when we tell you how brilliant you are (which you are). But you respond when someone says you're an idiot. So, LOL.
2. The Palin Thing, in isolation, did not launch this. It's more a roadsign of where we were and the direction we were headed, and if that CF didn't help create some of the permission structure, something else certainly would have. To the extent you were connected, you are forgiven, at least by me. I hope you forgive yourself.
3. I'm sure I speak for a lot of people here and elsewhere when I say I have tremendous respect for you and I'm truly grateful for your wisdom in these times, and the pain you have endured to give it to us. In fact, I keep giving money to every candidate you tell me, and keep subscribing to what you say is right, even that damn Puck News. I can tell you that if YOU were the nominee, I'd want to work for you.
4, Agreeing or not with the next move on the Democratic nominee doesn't change any of this.
Pollyannas like Mike are the same people who think you actually can put toothpaste back into the tube. And if you open Pandora's Box, you just need to catch her and stick her back in.
All politics aside, Pandora was not in the box, Pandora opened the box, allowing many curses to escape and plague mankind. They cannot be put back in the box.
I've found a lot of comments here the past two days seriously disappointing. Steve, I truly believe all of your writing during these years -- writing as everything was happening in real time -- will go down as historically profound, and far more significant than any video. Up until the debate, we kept hearing over and over that it was happening so early in the election cycle, which we seem to have forgotten.
Anyone who would take Biden's place at this point won't be some kind of outlier, as each was deeply vetted a long time ago. Yes, it would take herculean effort and planning to bring a new candidate up to speed, but why does that seem so impossible?
After Biden's performance, there ARE Democrats now who simply won't vote, even if it means Trump wins. I've known these people...the ones who voted for Bush Sr. because they perceived Dukakis as weak. They exist. The threat is real.
Steve, please don't listen to those taking potshots, which I find abhorrent considering the enormous effort you've put forth to defeat Trump. At this moment, the Democrats -- all still cringing in sorrow and embarrassment from the debate -- need leadership. Heads are spinning and fear is doing the talking. A great fresh new candidate could lay Trump to waste once and for all. Yes, a new candidate would be unprecedented, but this is the nature of the MAGA world in which we live. PLEASE don't give up on this. It won't be easy to lead on this point, but you're in a position to do it.
“If we must search for an historical analogue for today, I would propose that it be FDR's candidacy for a fourth term in 1944. He wasn't 81, but he was in a helluva lot worse shape than is Joe Biden today.”
You do realize that FDR died in office, less than three months after being reelected to his fourth term?
And he lived in a time when most of the nation didn’t even know he had polio and couldn’t walk. Today, we have social media, a biased “right-wing” media ecosystem carrying Trump’s water, and deep fakes.
Sorry, too much is at stake to walk straight into an ambush. Biden had his chance to set the record straight, and he lied to all of us. His campaign and advisors lied to all of us.
Why should we trust him now? He isn’t the savior you think he is. He’s become our greatest liability.
Today, a serial liar, corrupt autocrat and despicable human being’s lies are being unchecked, as Biden does damage control. Biden has become Trump’s greatest asset, as the MSM is focused on whether democrats will pull the plug on Biden’s candidacy.
Time to regroup and bring youth and vitality back into the election cycle. An 81 year old man is not equipped for all of the challenges facing America and the world today.
We’re electing a president for four years, not one. And can you honestly say that Biden’s cognitive dissonance won’t decline further over the next four years, or even if he’ll be alive in four years?
This country needs stability, and should not have to hold its collective breath, hoping Biden doesn’t keel over on day two. We deserve better!
Agreed, but my point was more about being able to hide his disabilities, as opposed to whether he had cognitive decline. In today’s world, nothing is sacred, or secret; for long…:)
“That’s what this is all about and why so many true American patriots today want Biden to step aside during this critical period in American history.”
To say I agree is a given but the way you’ve said it, so concisely and eloquently, was a real pleasure to read. I just can’t believe how some of these pundits can throw Biden under the bus for one 90 minute moment is beyond me. And I’m tired of it already.
Steve Schmidt has been fighting MAGA, 24/7, for YEARS, educating people about history and civics, and fighting for Democracy like our lives depend on it -and they do! I'm not for letting go of Biden/Harris at this time, but I sure understand Steve's concern. This IS 'The Warning'!
Mike your writing is beautiful and honest!...The one problem with comparing FDR with Biden is in difference. FDR's illness was Polio, his legs..He could not walk. But he was not having a possible age related difficulty, as Biden may be encountering. Biden is having walking difficulties, yes...but this is a huge difference that we have to recognize and attend to today, even if it brings us sadness in having to do so.
Maybe so, but it also isn’t that hard to actually respond to the content of the comment, instead of finding fault because you didn’t like the paragraph structure.
I write quickly, and multi-task; what’s your excuse? It’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer!….:)
That's possibly the best free practical substantive advice he's gonna get in his entire life. And you have been given the opportunity too. Paragraph structures matter. It's called communication. If you don't get it sorry to hear.
Now pound sand with your stuck-n-steamin' reply but I ain't a readin' it.
So says the guy whose grammar is atrocious and incoherent.
And if you truly have a hard time disseminating my paragraphs, perhaps it says a lot more about your reading comprehension, than my ability to create coherent sentences. No one else seems to have an issue!
What a joke for a guy who manages to regurgitate an unlimited amount of verbal diarrhea, while saying nothing meaningful at all!….:)
Maybe lying is a bit over the top, but he definitely hasn’t been honest about his cognitive decline. And this fact could help get Trump elected which is why I’m upset…:)
David, I also agree with you BUT we don’t have the time to see if Biden can “turn it around “. Every minute spent evaluating Biden’s day is a minute not attacking the REAL problem, Donald Trump.
I’m all for recognizing Joe Biden’s term in office and celebrate what he and his administration did to rid our country (and the world) of Trump’s poison. But, we need another person who has the strength to battle Trump for the our future.
David, if this election wasn’t so critical, I’d agree with you wholeheartedly.
And he, and his team have time. I’m sure consideration will be given, up, and until the convention. Obviously, unless we can have a fair, brokered convention should Biden agree to step down, then this may be a moot point.
Kamala may think she’s next in line, and unwilling to step aside. If that’s the case, then our options go from bad to worse.
This is difficult, and made worse because it’s an unforced error with dire consequences. What’s truly sad, is the fact we’re even in this position, with only four months to go before the election, with so much at stake.
Robert, I’m confused by your reference to Kamala given my understanding, that were Biden to release his delegates, the nominating process would rest with them. I expect, on Day 1, they would start cycling through votes until a candidate received the requisite number. Meantime, a roster of highly qualified candidates, I imagine Kamala among them, would be battling for the nomination. Personally, like Steve, I believe the benefits of an energized contest would far outweigh any chaos that might ensue. As such, I am baffled by the resistance of Substackers on several sites, particularly while Biden continues to hemorrhage votes from different groups for different reasons.
As a final point, I don’t imagine I’m alone in relishing the thought of our nominee taking full advantage of the bully pulpit, speaking fluently and extemporaneously in situations from which Biden’s handlers regularly protect him.
———————
Postscript: I neglected to mention, according to the rules, that Superdelegates would weigh in on the second ballot.
“He has to tell you that 80-somethings (jeez, I’ve never written that before) suffer cognitive decline?? So do 60-somethings.”—Rick Dunne
Yes, in a contest that pits democracy against fascism, he should; especially, when it’s been an issue in the party and media for over a year, and he and his team have denied it incessantly.
“You don’t seem to like the way it looks - but there is absolutely no indication that he is at all confused about anything.”—Rick Dunne
Seriously? First off, looks are irrelevant. And “no indication” he was confused about anything? I’m glad he defeated Medicare! Or how about his two minute unhinged rant about abortion, which was incomprehensible.
Trump was able to say he didn’t repeal Roe, is for abortion rights, and got away with it because the rest of us were completely flabbergasted at Biden’s responses.
Trump lied about everything, and every lie went unchallenged. And unchallenged lies eventually become fact, especially when the MSM and the rest of us are focused on whether Biden will even be alive in November.
Whether real or imagined, this is our reality. How can we fight Trump’s lies and dystopian plans for our future, when we’re playing defense the entire time?
This is an unforced error with major repercussions. I won’t allow my emotions to decide my vote. This election is bigger than any one man; our republic is on the menu.
So no, I don’t agree this is just one “90 minute” mistake. The president we elect is the president expected to lead for four years, not one or two.
Biden is weak with the youth vote thanks to Gaza, the African American vote thanks to his inability to tout his achievements effectively. He’s losing even Hispanics at a grave pace.
In fact, Trump and republicans are taking credit for much of Biden’s achievements (they didn’t even vote for), while we’re debating whether Biden should run again.
So seriously, take a deep breath and truly think whether Thursday night was an aberration, or a harbinger of bad things to come. I’m not dumping Biden over one bad night. It’s lots of bad decisions, and Thursday night was the final straw.
This makes me concerned for our future, that our country will wallow in those whose perceptions of blame and self-knowledge take us on the wrong dangerous path.
"the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" History speaks for itself. The playbook if obvious and we must know it and not let it happen again.
Steve has his defenders, legitimately so. I have no problem with that. However, I have two points to make. One, the Palin question is neither insult nor a failure to acknowledge payment for whatever. It is simply a reference to a mistake of historical proportion. Whatever role Steve played in it -- and I think it is unfair at best to blame it exclusively on McCain -- he was a part of it and at a minimum he failed to prevent it. In my view -- to which I am entitled -- removing Biden is of similar if not greater mistaken magnitude. Worse, beating the drums and leading a charge to demand the change is truly wrong-headed or worse. Two, no salutary, patriotic or heroic purpose is served by failing to recognize that we are virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent. That will only change if Biden himself -- with a very limited circle of input -- decides otherwise. You can wail and gnash your teeth over that, but it's the reality. We all should be recognizing that Trump -- not Biden -- is the issue and the challenge. Go read the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board editorial from yesterday.
“Two, no salutary, patriotic or heroic purpose is served by failing to recognize that we are virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent. That will only change if Biden himself -- with a very limited circle of input -- decides otherwise. You can wail and gnash your teeth over that, but it's the reality. We all should be recognizing that Trump -- not Biden -- is the issue and the challenge.”
I agree and disagree with your point. Yes, ultimately Biden will make a decision; however, that decision will be predicated on the mindset of his constituency that supports him. If we decide we will not vote for Biden, then he will have no choice then to step aside or lose. And that’s a decision the polls will convey over the next few weeks. Can Biden recover? Maybe, or maybe not; time will tell.
To say that we are “virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent” is nonsense. We as a collective group “were” committed, but many of us now have legitimate doubts, based on misinformation fed to us by his campaign. For over a year questions have e emerge as to his cognitive abilities, and for over a year we have been told that Biden is better than ever, and up to the challenge. Thursday night would vehemently disagree.
Biden may be the best, or only choice moving forward; however, given that no one can guarantee that Biden’s cognitive dissonance doesn’t decline further, having a Plan B makes perfect sense.
Saying that Biden should have the RIGHT to decide if he wants to run is based on what exactly? Is there some sovereign, disqualifying law or rule that prevents any exception or dispositive circumstantial intervention? His suddened revealed senility in the debate revealed two things. (1) He in no way beyond all questions fit to occupy the most important seat in the free world. (2). His continued denials about his obvious senility were simply straight-out lies misleading the country. Even if he is elected, should he have the keys to the nukes; is he really remotely capable of taking on the leaders of the increasing volatile world when he demonstrated that he was incapable of even taking on Trump, who could have been bested by anyone in the moment tuned into, listening to his pompous lies, distortions, untruths? If Biden is elected, the whole world will be on the edge of their seats daily, waiting for another shoe to drop.
Yes, even Schmidt has said, over and over again, that this election HAS to be about Trump, not Biden. We must take our time, energy and money and destroy Trump.
You know, Steve, the decision has already been made. So, as much as your piece is interesting U.S. Presidential history, it has no bearing today. The horse has already bolted from the stable - Dem Convention a month away, Election 4 months away. One debate does NOT EVER disqualify a candidate. Not ever.
Joe Biden can not quit. It goes against everything he is, everything he was taught. You must know that. Please know that his numbers haven’t moved, anecdotes notwithstanding.
Might I suggest your energy be redirected to explaining why he is the better candidate for the USA. Why every voter must search their conscience and vote for the one man who can save democracy?
Democracy is teetering. Not just in America, but around the world… in Canada, in France, in other European countries. We must have Joe Biden - the elder of elders - elected. To remind us where we’ve been and where we’ll be if we don’t defeat Trump & MAGA.
Get. Out. The. Vote. MUST NOW be the only rallying cry.
And Obama won. Your analogy, while very clever, is way off the mark. He didn’t wheeze - he did stumble. No doubt. I’m not making excuses for him. It was a bad debate for Biden.
But one debate doesn’t normally decide the Presidency. Record does. Character does. Likability does.
Trump has none of any of that. Biden scores high on all.
If America doesn’t choose Biden it won’t be because of his debate. It will be because they prefer Trump…. It’s that simple.
The job at hand for you, for me, for Steve, for all of goodwill, is to make sure they remember exactly what Trump is - to use your analogy: he’s John Wilkes Booth.
That is also a false analogy…Obama could recover from one poor debate…I don’t think Biden can. Obama was neither old nor frail (or feeble?). I truly believe that if Biden remains the nominee, this country is doomed to a Trump autocracy! There is still time to “close the barn door” so we don’t lose our country! We need a strong, younger candidate (not Harris!) if we want to save our democracy and we need that person now!
Please watch the NC rally with Biden -he's on his game- the day after the debate, his speech in Normandy, and the SOTU address that are very recent. Thanks.
Obama was able to easily recover because he was not suffering from a decline due to age. Not to mention that Obama did not look as if he was one foot in the grave during his debate.
Even Steve Schmidt, over and over again, has said this election has to be about Trump (not Biden). We need to refocus on the insanity, corruption, felonies, Project 2025, Fascism, etc. that ARE Trump. Use his own words like the Lincoln Project does on an epic scale of advertising and social-media algorithms. Thanks.
What is off the mark is your understanding of the comparison. Yes, Obama had a bad debate. THAT's is what you call having one bad debate because you indeed can come back from that kind of bad debate. Biden on the other hand...
You have decided Biden can’t come back from his. Thats where we part company. He did come back that evening/next day in NC. We expect him to do the same in the next one.
Clearly you don’t think he can…or that he should.
You want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
You also think debates decide the Presidency. I do not.
Pretty sure we will have to disagree. And we’ll see which of us is proven correct in November.
Many people, even Democrats, have been influenced by the onslaught of MAGA propaganda, amplified by social-media algorithms, which exaggerated Biden's decline. His debate performance was terrible, but not representative of Biden's ability to function and to govern well.
While reading from a teleprompter in NC he is able to manage slightly better. He yells now in his speech to portray strength.
He is having difficulty and has for some time. That is not going to get better. He is clearly struggling. How can people not see this or refuse to.
I will vote for Joe Biden and blue all the way but this really is not the way to go forward. I also would be absolutely thrilled to vote for Shapiro and Whitmer if it happens.
Not only a bad debate. If anyone cares to get out of their heavily filtered media bubble for a even an hour a week, you will see that Biden has real problems getting into vehicles despite being helped, has rejected any interview that requires him to speak ad hoc (and not read from a teleprompter like he did even for the 5-minute speech after the debate), that real doctors who specialize in the type of problems Biden is having (both physically and mentally) are asking who is running the country right NOW, that reporters are admitting to behind-the-scenes conversations where they have been told this happens to Biden regularly even in the oval and that he has to have special color-coded notecards to hold important conversations.
If Biden had a decent VP, many could live with what is happening. Kamala would be horrible as president. Her approval rating is lower than Biden's, which is quite a feat.
Absolutely pathetic response. You and the rest of your clueless believers in the impossible are driving this nation over a cliff. May you live long to experience Trumpism in all its glory.
Your anger and rude response doesn’t change reality. Biden is the Dem candidate. Thats a fact. You may disagree with that decision. It’s his decision to make. Looks to me like he’s made it. He’s heard from all of the pundits, advisors, etc. He’s the candidate.
So, all the naysaying is doing nothing more than making more noise.
“Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party”…. That includes Women coming to the aid.... ‘cause do you really think the majority of American women will allow Trump to take us back to the 1930s, 40s, ‘50s, when we’ve worked our tails off to make our own decisions - the least of which is decisions over our own bodies? Oh, hell no!
Trump hates women. He wants us to be handmaidens. Biden will stop that.
All American women know that. No matter how they vote.
So, please, take a deep breath, join your local Dem group and get out the vote!
Totally agree and stand with Biden. He is on the side of womens rights and democracy. Trump is not and he’s despicable to say the least. He will damage our country beyond repair.Republicans want us to be in chaos. The talk of choosing another candidate shows them we are, we are causing our own division and showing WE don’t believe we can win with Biden.This helps the Republicans.
The truth is difficult. And the truth also is what we don't know or understand CAN absolutely hurt us. The noise is coming FROM the pundits. Pick up Ruth Ben-Ghiat's book Strongmen or anything along those lines, or read history of Germany and Hitler from his early days and especially 1918 to the liberation. It will open your eyes, the similarities are frightening, real and too important to ignore. You may feel like Mark listening to the actual noise.
Unfortunately there are no congressmen, congresswomen, or governors of sufficient national stature who can replace Biden at this late date. It would end in turmoil and failure to try. Any of those whom you mentioned should have tossed their hat into the ring many months ago so that they could be adequately vetted and thereby gained that recognition. If DJT wins and America dies, Biden and his coterie will not be at fault. It will be the fault of the cowardly and traitorous Republican congressmen who could have easily stopped this tragedy the day after Jan 6.
Many fair points, Max. I would make a counter on your point about "should have tossed their hat into the ring months ago". By Biden choosing to run, he shut down any possibility of an actual primary. The DNC party would not allow it and provided mere lip service. Dean Phillips' ill-advisedly put his name in the ring and was never a serious alternative. No one who was a viable D alternative could run once Biden announced. You don't primary an incumbent as it is a sure way to lose in the general election as you've provided the opponent there with all the ammo needed to defeat the incumbent, should the incumbent survive the primary.
And if Biden loses, and TFG rises to the authoritarian dictator running what he views as his kingdom, not sure who else will own that. Sure, ultimately the voters, but not having a candidate able to generate excitement and new support is a valid and real concern. I mean, Hillary lost to TFG in 2016 and was blamed for running a poor or at least ineffective campaign in many areas or swing states. Why shouldn't Biden and his team own some of the responsibility if he fails to win this November?
All said, as I've mentioned several times since Thursday's absolutely humiliating debate, I will still support Biden - as will everyone here suggesting he either remain or step aside - because TFG is a grave threat to our country and democracy.
I keep thinking about Rudyard Kipling "If" poem: "If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you..."
I keep reading Mr. Schmidt, because he hits the mark more often than not, and I do think he has integrity. I like his passion.
However, these panic attacks from certain (not all) Never Trumpers like Schmidt and Klein are ridiculous. Biden stumbled, and badly. He's an old man and he sure did look it in that debate--although, he perked up for the after party in Atlanta and at the Raleigh rally the next day. He carries a load that Trump does not these days, and he had a bad cold.
Thing is, Trump is terribly old too, and Trump, despite being pumped up on Adderall, did worse in that debate than media will ever admit. He showed exactly who he is the moment he did his bully stroll onto the stage, cocked his head arrogantly side to side, and spouted lie after lie after lie. MAGA doesn't care about the truth--but a lot of people out here do. MAGA loves bullies, most people do not, and we don't fail to recognize one when we see one.
In the end, as I told an ex-pat friend overseas, if America chooses Trump over Biden because of age, ignoring Trump's flat out lies and Biden's considerable accomplishments over the past four years, we never deserved Democracy in the first place.
It is way too late to change horses midstream. Biden is a competent public servant with strong and deep morals, and plenty of determination in the face of a bully. He can come back, and America likes underdogs. I've always preferred a younger candidate such as Newsom, Buttigieg, or Whitmer, but thinking hard about who would have been ready to run in this cycle, I think Biden was not wrong in deciding to run again in 2024; I am positive it was not ego but a cold political calculation about whether he could win.
On top of all of this, I watch carefully what America's mortal enemies and media that has relentlessly criticized and minimized Biden--China/Russia trolls and looking at you, Mr. Sulzberger of NY Times, for starters--what do they shout and crow about lately?
They are screaming for Biden to step aside. They want him out of the picture and have desperately done everything they can to kick him aside because they know he is the best bet against Trump at this moment.
That they are doubling down now is to me is a very strong tip-off. I'd really rather not do what they want right now. I'd rather not play into their ugly and twisted agendas.
100% incorrect. But thanks for making it possible for America to go to bed on election night early. This campaign, as currently constituted, is over. And why? Because you and your ilk are afraid? I thought this was an election in which one candidate was an existential threat to democracy and that defeating it was everything?? I must have seriously overrated your passion to save the Republic.
In this case, doing the right thing is caving, causing chaos, and pretty much helping and enabling trump the Fraud, the adjudicated rapist, the convicted Felon become President again .
If these were normal times - where there was no threat to the country turning into an Authoritarian
Project 2025 agenda . I might agree with you . But this is too serious . And Biden can Beat trump.
Trump is being USED - for his tax cuts, and his willingness to go along and implement the Heritage Foundations visual for this country. It would take YEARS AND YEARS to clean up that mess.
I don't want to wake up with less rights . and less freedoms than when I went to bed.
I don't want to wake up and see the Felon pick out more justices for the supreme court with a smug smirk on his face.
I don't want to have ANY religion shoved down my kids throats or my throat . Freedom of Religion means...Everyone of Every Religion can freely practice their faith. NOT that Christianity is the Religion of the country..where bibles and 10 commandments are in every class room .
Where I am now being lectured by rapists, pedophiles, frauds, and felons - On what is MORAL and what is NOT. we are living in more than upside down world...
the Republicans today are Celebrating the Year of the Felon . Every single republican in congress.
every single republican running for a seat in congress . Has some kind of Rap sheet. WTF?
and they ...THEY are going to "SCHOOL US" on morality and family values ...GTFOH.
I CARE ABOUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY STEVE...I find you extremely intelligent with an incredible vocabulary and ability to write. ---but Biden gracefully bowing out.
The Democratic base is set. Who's to say a great many uncommitteds are waiting to vote Democrat as long as it's anyone other than Biden? Especially now. He had a 38% approval rate BEFORE the debate.
Enough with the Biden-bashing. Take a break and assess where things are going. Trump has managed to divide us and will conquer us if you don’t stop tearing Biden down. Please stop propelling us toward a Trump takeover. We’ve got Biden’s back. Please join us.
Steve, you were involved in the launch of Dean Phillips for President. I believe you were sincere, but you were wrong, his campaign went nowhere and was a distraction. I believe you want to see Trump defeated. I also believe you are sincere in your belief that Biden should step down. I believe you're wrong and that you may be letting your emotions overwhelm your logic. You do tend to go down rabbit holes. I also think you've lost your faith in American voters and I certainly understand why. Trump got elected, but he badly lost the popular vote (yes, I know all about the Electoral College). Republicans operate as if they're the Borg (Star Trek The Next Generation), Democrats do not. There can be no public discussion of Trump stepping down among Republicans which is why we see almost no op-eds or political pundits calling for Trump to step down, even though he's an adjudicated rapist and a convicted felon. There was a dramatic drop in debate viewership. Post-debate polling shows virtually no change in support for either candidate and focus groups talked a lot about Trump's lies (they did acknowledge Biden's poor showing), and some evidence that Latinos are moving slightly toward Biden. There is no historical evidence that debates change the needle in the long-run and, given that this debate was so early, there's still enough time to move past this it. Trump is convinced he "won" and the more cocky Trump gets the worse he becomes. "Black jobs" and yelling "immigration" all the time, for every issues have not gone over well, as Biden calling Trump whiney hits home. Trump needs more than his MAGA base. Trump and Republicans are giving conflicting messages on whether early voting and mail-in voting are a good or a bad thing and this has an impact. Biden had much better fundraising the day of and the day after the debate. Biden's speech and "performance" the next day was back up to par. Biden has been in politics for a very long time and he acknowledged that he didn't debate well (contrasting Trump's position that he never makes a mistake, he doesn't even have to ask God for forgiveness). Biden has shown over his career that he can take criticism and change. Trump sees such change as weakness. The discussions about replacing Biden also show the enormous problems with doing that - delegates, national name recognition, fundraising, ground game, short timeframe, etc. I understand why pundits and some donors are concerned. I also know that you seem convinced that the voting public isn't paying attention, but you aren't paying attention to women voters. We're used to men not paying attention to us on political issues. There are currently more women voters than men and it's mostly women doing the work behind the state abortion ballot initiatives; abortion is about as personal as you can get. Men didn't lose a constitutionally protected right. Abortion is kryptonite for Republicans and that's not going to change. It's irrelevant what Trump says about the issue, Project 2025 spells it out and there's more and more public discussions about Project 2025. The same is true for younger voters as they hear Trump saying climate change is a hoax and maybe you'll get more oceanfront properties. The super conservative Supreme Court allowed bump stocks and younger voters want more gun control. There's a lot of activity in getting younger voters registered and universities will be in session in November which is why Republicans are trying to stop college students from voting. Yes, you still have to get these people to actually vote but I believe the message is getting through, even if we don't see that happening on a daily basis. There are some people for vote based on Party lines regardless of the candidate, there are some people who vote based on name recognition, but I think there are even more people who vote based on how they feel about a candidate. Obama tapped into this. Biden's policies are popular and he makes people feel good. Trump has no policies and he makes people feel bad, and angry. We also have two very, very important things about to happen. The Supreme Court will rule on Monday about Presidential immunity. Most people who believe in democracy are not happy with the Supreme Court right now, but if they send it back to DC the trial can proceed. It won't be decided by November, but a lot of the evidence can be made public. The second thing will be Trump's sentencing in a couple of weeks and people on both sides will not be happy with the results. When these two things happen the first debate will be off the radar. The news of today is always pushed aside for the news of tomorrow, especially when Trump is involved. I think the pendulum is swinging and Biden will be able to defeat Trump. There was a lot of talk early on about giving people reasons to vote for Biden other than they hate Trump. We may be back to hating Trump and I have no problem with that.
Excellent! Also, ANY candidate who would replace Biden would be subject to extreme propaganda smears from the Trump/MAGA team, amplified by social-media algorithms.
I'm not worried about Biden's ability to govern. I believe in him. And whie I am concerned, though, about his ability to win the coming election, I see no viable alternative. I believe our energies would be best spent by whole heartedly supporting Biden and doing whatever we can to assure his re-election. I hope that you will use your smart, articulate voice to do this in future Warnings.
Brilliant essay and I stand with it. Joe Biden must step aside for the good of the country. His candidacy is finished. We cannot turn away from it. It was right there on Thursday night. And Steve is right. Joe Biden has nothing to be ashamed of. He and his administration have performed solidly. I am proud of him as a president, but his candidacy has been permanently disabled. My stomach dropped watching that debate. My friends and I, after all the politicking and donating, got a sense of what the evening of November 5th will feel like when Trump is announced as the winner, but luckily there is still a chance. Trump is extremely beatable if we get a candidate who can make that case. Time is short and the Democrats have to act now.
Trump was actually more incoherent than Biden, but the fat orange fake messiah talks fast and very few people actually listen to what he says. I keep thinking at some point he's going to do or say something so flagrantly evil and demented--even for him--that no vaguely reasonable person can possibly vote for him. After the debate I'd say the chances of that remain good.
Thank you for a reasonable reply. The main attack that will be used against Biden is that he is feeble. That debate cemented that argument. Joe Biden was tied or behind in the battle ground states before the election. We will now wake up to polling that will show that it is worsening. We can not count on Trump to defeat himself. There are not enough vaguely reasonable Americans to elect Joe Biden. If there were, Biden would be massively ahead. Joe Biden was our last line of defense against Trump. Trump rolled over Biden and now the road to the White House is open to him. I see that there is danger on switching the candidate now, but there is greater danger in leaving Biden as the candidate.
From Susan Dumas, editorial from Michigan Advance:
“But here's what I do know. It is patently absurd to have major newspapers and politicos demanding that Biden exit the race when they never said boo after Trump declared he was running again less than two years after attempting to foment a coup, after he was found liable for raping and defaming writer E. Jean Carroll, after he was ordered to pay $454 million in a civil fraud case or after he was found guilty of almost three dozen felonies in a hush money cased tied to the 2016 election.
How any of that is less disqualifying than looking old and sick at one debate is the biggest example of pundit brain I've ever seen.
There's only one man who should unequivocally drop out of the race. Anyone who tells you that it's not Donald Trump is trying to sell you something.”
Exactly!!’ This is how gaslit, numb and absurd the media and pundit class have become and have made the American people become.
I sometimes think Steve is too hard on the media but no more. I get it. That so much of the media just normalizes and moves on after every Trumpian abomination…. They should put more energy into shouting that Trump is unfit and needs to step down. I know the corrupt and cowardly Republican Party will ignore it. Say it anyway. Repeatedly. I keep thinking of Timothy Sneiders rules for fighting tyranny. Do not willingly submit.
God help of us all…..as Democrats we embrace shades of gray…..we have always understood the world is never just black or white. That’s why I love all the decent and wonderful people who are us. Unfortunately we are up against a vast majority of Republicans who are the opposite. For them it’s either black or white, party above country, tribe before democracy, you’re either with them or against them. They don’t care about nuance or virtue. But now I have to ask you to look at all the incredible Republican voices out there who do indeed embrace truth over lies, good over evil, justice over ideology. I’m talking about Steve, George Conway, Anna Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Stuart Stevens, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and countless more. No decent person I know would kick a dog because he is old, least of all the Steve we know who wrote about his love for Teddy. So just stop. We’re all sad and disappointed about Biden’s performance. We all understand he was pummeled by non stop horrendously outrageous lies. We have to listen to all voices and come up with a solution…..and quickly. For once, I have to shut the f up and hope to a higher power there is a solution that actually works. The current Republican leadership in Congress and the Courts is outright death for this nation by supporting some of the most vile people to emerge in our lifetime….Putin, Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
Mr. Steve, your analysis is spot on. And to think that eight people hold the keys to the castle is worrisome. Joe Biden is weak and befuddled without a teleprompter and notes. Keep beating the drum!
It occurred to me that there was a good reason for the DOJ to refuse to release the tape of Biden’s interview with the Special Counsel investigating his handling of classified material. It may be worse than his debate performance.
Absolutely fair. They provided the transcript. Many pundits after the debate said, "Well if you read the transcript, Biden won the debate." If that's the case, they knew months and months ago. Ugh... No one cares about the transcript. No one. It's how someone appears, and Biden appeared lost, confused, and weak. A really bad look.
What a shame and very sad day if our country and its people would rather vote for a dangerous autocratic candidate because he “looked better”on television. Trump only sounded coherent because he didn’t answer the questions. He didn’t even bother listening to the questions. He spewed lies he memorized with fortitude very fast. That seems to be what the MAGA party does now. Lie loudly with conviction.Other countries listen to their elders with respect. Paying attention to the words, not how they are delivered. With respect Trump told so many falsehoods it was embarrassing for us and the country. Biden may have looked “feeble” but doesn’t it matter what his policies are and how he will lead the country? Or should we give up our democracy because the lover of dictators sounded forthright and spoke his lies without a stutter?
Hey Dani - Thank you for your response. I agree with every single thing you said, but too many people are ill- or misinformed. So, yes, unfortunately many will vote for a person who looked better. Should they? Hell no, but will they? Sadly, yes. We've all heard since we were young or at least younger that perception equals reality. The perceived reality of many is that TFG was stronger, and regardless of messaging and ALL the effing lies and criminality, came across as the stronger candidate. I mean, that this race is even close, is a clear indication and a red brightly blinking light that too many people don't give a damn about policy.
Biden still has my vote if he stays in the race. TFG is a criminal, lunatic, and will kill this country. I truly believe that. But that doesn't mean much to far too many people. And yes, that is the devastating reality. Also consider that after the 4 years of chaos of his first term, 74 million people turned out to vote for him. Most of those people were told to vote only in person in the middle of a pandemic. That's 11 million (!!??) more people than voted for him in 2016. Still think people who vote like that give a damn about policy?
Yes, TFG is all of those things and more. "No one gives a shit" will be proven in November. I would suggest that TFG's support and MAGA hardliners don't care one bit about all those things you accurately say about him. Not being of sound mind, or the appearance of it, will have an effect on people as it will diminish the new support needed.
Thank you Steve for your history lesson and paean to American exceptionalism. What we must keep in mind is that our nation is a nation of survivors of crises, and people who have overcome adversity time after time. We prevailed in the Revolutionary War, although divided, and against long odds, against a superior foe. We held the Union together in the Civil War, and abolished slavery, although we were again terribly divided at the time. We survived great depressions, and were victorious in World Wars I and II, and made most of the world safe for democracy. I have no doubt that our American citizens will rise to the occasion and do the right thing. We all must vote our consciences.
I have noticed an uptick in push-back when Steve offers the most reasonable and thoughtful analysis. It's totally OK to not share the same opinion, but so many people just turn aggressive if not nasty, and they appear to hover ever so close to the cult like fanaticism we see on the other "side". Of course, I'm not, not going to vote for Biden, if he is indeed the choice, but the issue isn't our vote it's the sideline vote that sees Biden as decrepit, physically weak and on Death's door-step. I personally know people, say Midwestern, male trades-workers, listen to Adam Corolla or Joe Rogan, social moderates who, short-sighted as I think it is, vote based on projected strength. If the decided's are voting Dem anyway, then why fall in love with one candidate. I think bringing in a younger, more energetic candidate that can go toe-to toe with Trump's BS onslaught at least gives us the chance to cast a bigger net of influence over undecided voters and seems like a completely reasonable consideration. All I know is that if I thought my pleas with the aforementioned undecided-voter we're ignored before, then those images of Biden from the debate was the proverbial nail in that conversation. I'd have to agree with them, yet I'll still vote for whatever Dem isn't Trump. Is it frustrating that we are this shallow and unserious as a nation?(or at least a large percentage) Absolutely, but we are well past the point of all hands and ideas on deck at this point. What I know about politics could fit into a thimble, and I respect Steve's vast knowledge and generosity of that knowledge even if I don't always agree. For better or worse, we're in this shit together.
100% correct. Everyone here (except the aggrieved Frank Lee) would vote for a dried out baked potato over a fascist. It's not about US on this page, it's about a few thousand low-information voters in a few swing states. That's it. And winning is everything this time.
I listened this afternoon to an interview with Jamie Raskin. He was the first ranking Democrat I have heard that did not avoid the issue or gas light people.
He said “a serious conversation” is under way about whether Joe Biden will be the nominee.
He also said if Biden is not the nominee, he will still have a central role at the convention and will give the keynote address.
This post reminds me of MacBeth: "A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." On many days and many topics, Mr. Schmidt, you are eloquent, incisive and very informative. But not today. All your historical analogues signify nothing. Sadly, the only one that occurs to me is your part in launching not only Sarah Palin on the country, but, ultimately, the insanity and criminality and recklessness of Donald Trump and MAGAworld. If we must search for an historical analogue for today, I would propose that it be FDR's candidacy for a fourth term in 1944. He wasn't 81, but he was in a helluva lot worse shape than is Joe Biden today. Indeed, I suspect (and there are even today whisperings that suggest) those in his inner circle knew he was not long for this world. Biden is our man, our leader, our Trump-antidote and we have only one duty in the circumstances. Face it, accept it and get behind it firmly, energetically and with all the commitment of our collective beings we have. The time for breast-beating, useless oratory and empty rhetoric is long past. Protect the country from the horror, the cancer and the existential threat that is Trump and MAGAworld.
Mike,
On the basis that you’ve referred to me as an “idiot,” this comment doesn’t warrant a response.
However, there are some facts that I feel compelled to state:
1. I played an enormous role in electing Biden to the presidency, by starting a group that had more than $3 billion in advertising impact on the race. For that, my life was threatened by Trump. I was forced to move from my home. Boxes of human feces were sent to my house, and I was smeared by Democratic political operatives in DC that said that the effort didn’t matter, and had no impact. Further, I was accused of being personally corrupt, a grifter and a pedophile.
2. I have written extensively about Sarah Palin. I did not select her. John McCain did.
https://steveschmidt.substack.com/p/no-books-no-money-just-the-truth
I take enormous offence to you stating that I played a part in “launching…the insanity and criminality and recklessness of Donald Trump and MAGAworld.” I have put my life — and that of my family — on the line to defeat Trump and Trumpism for nine very long years. Every. Single. Day. Trump is the threat to America, and in my view, Biden can’t defeat him.
Steve
Steve, your first point was spot on: he doesn’t deserve a response.
We all know how committed you are to our democracy, and saving it from some very nefarious actors. You’ve been on the frontlines, warning us of the dangers of MAGA, and have been a great history professor to all of us who read your newsletter religiously.
Today’s newsletter is no different. Excellent, and I agree wholeheartedly…:)
Here Here!!
A Word in Defense of Mike: In all fairness, he didn't call you an idiot. He made an analogy, he engaged in some snark. He also said very positive things about your work. I do think the criticism about responsibility for Trump was over the top, but I think--and I'm sorry, Mike, if this isn't what you meant--he might have been referring to what Tim Miller and Stuart Stevens wrote about, a kind of collective Republican guilt for where we are now. You and I have been on the outs before on this substack. You just don't know how terrible it feels to be singled out in writing by someone of your stature, who really we all look up to, for what the writer, right or wrong, thought was a snarky, but fair, post. A lot of us don't agree with you about Biden's prospects, but the fact we are where we are is due to ignorance, not Biden's bad debate.
Enoonmai,
My intention is never to single people out within this community. And, I didn't consider our exchange to mean that we were "on the outs." After having been held responsible and smeared for John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin for 14 years, I made the decision several years ago that I need to set the record straight when there is misinformation circulated about me.
Steve
Perhaps, but the “Palin” reference was unwarranted. No one here except Steve has ever worked on a presidential campaign, where every day presents a new controversy, or catastrophe, and every decision is high stakes, and highly intense; where sometimes your only options are bad ones, or worse ones.
We shouldn’t be reprising past issues in this discussion, whether we agree with Steve’s position or not.
It’s a discussion that is necessary, and the solution remains unresolved; for now!…:)
I agree about Palin. Hopefully, Mike will read Steve's article about it. But he did not call Steve an idiot, and he did praise Steve's body of work. A lot of us think it is way too late to replace Biden, and the result would be catastrophic. This discussion which you believe we must have I believe is a waste of time and counterproductive. And here we are.
I reread it, and agree, It wasn’t a personal insult.
And you may be right about Biden, but you may also be wrong. We still have time before the convention to make a change. If we don’t have the discussion, then we definitely won’t have an option should Biden’s cognitive dissonance decline further.
Can you guarantee Biden is fine and can carry on with his duties? He certainly isn’t inspiring anyone, which is also part of his job description. Trump’s team is galvanized like never before. Thursday was the greatest morale booster Trump has ever received and he is milking it for every last drop.
My point, these are legitimate questions that need to be answered. And I certainly would want a plan B, because another spectacle like Thursday night, could prove more than fatal; it could be a complete death kneel for our republic.
I do not think it is remotely feasible to change candidates now, and I do believe Biden is fine, because he's there doing the job every day. Not one White House insider has said, "The President is senile.
He's addled. Can't cut it any more." And you know they'd run with it if that happened. No, Fox and the New York Post have to reverse engineer the "evidence."
Can you imagine the uproar now if Judge Marchan sentences Trump to jail time? "He's doing this to protect Biden from another debate."
Well, I certainly would have felt that I was called an idiot. Let's review:
"This post reminds me of MacBeth: 'A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.'"
He's not only calling Steve an idiot, but he's also saying his post says absolutely nothing of value. You can gentle it up by calling it an analogy or snark, but it's bluntly mean spirited. It's ironic that Mike says Steve is saying nothing, for how does this comment add anything at all to the discussion?
Also, Management 101 tells us to *never* lead with a criticism, especially one this harsh. By the time Mike got to his compliments, Steve's ears were completely shut, and so were mine.
Well said. Plus the “Palin” remark was uncalled for. It only adds insult to injury and serves no purpose. To blame Steve for that decision when we all know it was a “Hail Mary” moment because McCain was losing the race is ludicrous. McCain made the decision, Steve was one of many advisors.
quite well put.
“Not one White House insider has said, "The President is senile.”
True, but “senile” isn’t what I’m hearing. He has lots of senior moments. And what happens if they start to occur at say the G-7? Or at a press conference?
The problem is we don’t know the extent of his cognitive decline, but we do know that whoever was on stage on Thursday night, was not a man in full command of his faculties.
I spent most of my career in high finance. I’ve learned a long time ago that hedging one’s bet isn’t only prudent, it’s crucial!…:)
Without proper education in history, civics and critical thinking skills, we're doomed.
Everyone take a chill 💊
The question of this hour of looming doom is not whether Joe Biden has been, and can be for another four years, an excellent president, but rather whether he can win re-election. Lamentably and realistically, he cannot. So grow up and grow some cajones, patriotic, anti-Trump, anti-fascist Americans and choose the most powerful candidate with the best chance to eviscerate Trump and his cult to preclude them from transforming America’s democratic republic into a totalitarian state.
Jesus Christ the testosterone is too much. It's not about your pedigree. It's about whether you are right or wrong that someone else - this close to November- could survive political scrutiny, inspire the country, and articulate a reason why they are running instead of Harris without alienating the black vote. Turn your prodigious force of analysis to that essential question please because it is- without hyperbole- the only question that matters.
Well stated, thank you
What would it take for Biden supporters to understand the gravity of the moment? Repeated Mitch McConnell petit mal seizures, falling down the steps to the debate platform, uttering gibberish on national television, a coma…is there anything short of death that would give an inkling of the need to tac towards realism? Imagine the turbid waters ahead for an already feeble captain at the helm who will be five years older, not younger, at the conclusion of his 2nd term.
1. Gotta say, you don't respond when we tell you how brilliant you are (which you are). But you respond when someone says you're an idiot. So, LOL.
2. The Palin Thing, in isolation, did not launch this. It's more a roadsign of where we were and the direction we were headed, and if that CF didn't help create some of the permission structure, something else certainly would have. To the extent you were connected, you are forgiven, at least by me. I hope you forgive yourself.
3. I'm sure I speak for a lot of people here and elsewhere when I say I have tremendous respect for you and I'm truly grateful for your wisdom in these times, and the pain you have endured to give it to us. In fact, I keep giving money to every candidate you tell me, and keep subscribing to what you say is right, even that damn Puck News. I can tell you that if YOU were the nominee, I'd want to work for you.
4, Agreeing or not with the next move on the Democratic nominee doesn't change any of this.
Ditto! Great comment, thanks.
Pollyannas like Mike are the same people who think you actually can put toothpaste back into the tube. And if you open Pandora's Box, you just need to catch her and stick her back in.
All politics aside, Pandora was not in the box, Pandora opened the box, allowing many curses to escape and plague mankind. They cannot be put back in the box.
I've found a lot of comments here the past two days seriously disappointing. Steve, I truly believe all of your writing during these years -- writing as everything was happening in real time -- will go down as historically profound, and far more significant than any video. Up until the debate, we kept hearing over and over that it was happening so early in the election cycle, which we seem to have forgotten.
Anyone who would take Biden's place at this point won't be some kind of outlier, as each was deeply vetted a long time ago. Yes, it would take herculean effort and planning to bring a new candidate up to speed, but why does that seem so impossible?
After Biden's performance, there ARE Democrats now who simply won't vote, even if it means Trump wins. I've known these people...the ones who voted for Bush Sr. because they perceived Dukakis as weak. They exist. The threat is real.
Steve, please don't listen to those taking potshots, which I find abhorrent considering the enormous effort you've put forth to defeat Trump. At this moment, the Democrats -- all still cringing in sorrow and embarrassment from the debate -- need leadership. Heads are spinning and fear is doing the talking. A great fresh new candidate could lay Trump to waste once and for all. Yes, a new candidate would be unprecedented, but this is the nature of the MAGA world in which we live. PLEASE don't give up on this. It won't be easy to lead on this point, but you're in a position to do it.
“If we must search for an historical analogue for today, I would propose that it be FDR's candidacy for a fourth term in 1944. He wasn't 81, but he was in a helluva lot worse shape than is Joe Biden today.”
You do realize that FDR died in office, less than three months after being reelected to his fourth term?
And he lived in a time when most of the nation didn’t even know he had polio and couldn’t walk. Today, we have social media, a biased “right-wing” media ecosystem carrying Trump’s water, and deep fakes.
Sorry, too much is at stake to walk straight into an ambush. Biden had his chance to set the record straight, and he lied to all of us. His campaign and advisors lied to all of us.
Why should we trust him now? He isn’t the savior you think he is. He’s become our greatest liability.
Today, a serial liar, corrupt autocrat and despicable human being’s lies are being unchecked, as Biden does damage control. Biden has become Trump’s greatest asset, as the MSM is focused on whether democrats will pull the plug on Biden’s candidacy.
Time to regroup and bring youth and vitality back into the election cycle. An 81 year old man is not equipped for all of the challenges facing America and the world today.
We’re electing a president for four years, not one. And can you honestly say that Biden’s cognitive dissonance won’t decline further over the next four years, or even if he’ll be alive in four years?
This country needs stability, and should not have to hold its collective breath, hoping Biden doesn’t keel over on day two. We deserve better!
Agreed, but my point was more about being able to hide his disabilities, as opposed to whether he had cognitive decline. In today’s world, nothing is sacred, or secret; for long…:)
“That’s what this is all about and why so many true American patriots today want Biden to step aside during this critical period in American history.”
I’m in 100% agreement!…:)
To say I agree is a given but the way you’ve said it, so concisely and eloquently, was a real pleasure to read. I just can’t believe how some of these pundits can throw Biden under the bus for one 90 minute moment is beyond me. And I’m tired of it already.
Steve Schmidt has been fighting MAGA, 24/7, for YEARS, educating people about history and civics, and fighting for Democracy like our lives depend on it -and they do! I'm not for letting go of Biden/Harris at this time, but I sure understand Steve's concern. This IS 'The Warning'!
Biden is having conversation with his family about the future of the reelection campaign at Camp David today. https://youtu.be/CApslJzJNNg?si=yTK1N4krHF4tTB-A
Thank you for posting this, May.
Mike your writing is beautiful and honest!...The one problem with comparing FDR with Biden is in difference. FDR's illness was Polio, his legs..He could not walk. But he was not having a possible age related difficulty, as Biden may be encountering. Biden is having walking difficulties, yes...but this is a huge difference that we have to recognize and attend to today, even if it brings us sadness in having to do so.
You should learn how to divide text into proper paragraphs.
I ain't that hard.
You should add comments with substance,True Tales. Robert Jaffee made a good point.
Maybe so, but it also isn’t that hard to actually respond to the content of the comment, instead of finding fault because you didn’t like the paragraph structure.
I write quickly, and multi-task; what’s your excuse? It’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer!….:)
That's possibly the best free practical substantive advice he's gonna get in his entire life. And you have been given the opportunity too. Paragraph structures matter. It's called communication. If you don't get it sorry to hear.
Now pound sand with your stuck-n-steamin' reply but I ain't a readin' it.
Hey, grammar can wait while we save our Democracy!
So says the guy whose grammar is atrocious and incoherent.
And if you truly have a hard time disseminating my paragraphs, perhaps it says a lot more about your reading comprehension, than my ability to create coherent sentences. No one else seems to have an issue!
What a joke for a guy who manages to regurgitate an unlimited amount of verbal diarrhea, while saying nothing meaningful at all!….:)
I have never once noticed your 'paragraph structure' or anything, Robert, except for your excellent level of knowledge-and kindness:-)
“I ain't that hard.”
Instead of worrying about my paragraph structure, perhaps you should focus on your grammar?
It isn’t that hard!…..:)
Maybe lying is a bit over the top, but he definitely hasn’t been honest about his cognitive decline. And this fact could help get Trump elected which is why I’m upset…:)
Robert, Biden had a terrible night but I think we owe it to him to allow him time to turn it around.
David, I also agree with you BUT we don’t have the time to see if Biden can “turn it around “. Every minute spent evaluating Biden’s day is a minute not attacking the REAL problem, Donald Trump.
I’m all for recognizing Joe Biden’s term in office and celebrate what he and his administration did to rid our country (and the world) of Trump’s poison. But, we need another person who has the strength to battle Trump for the our future.
David, if this election wasn’t so critical, I’d agree with you wholeheartedly.
And he, and his team have time. I’m sure consideration will be given, up, and until the convention. Obviously, unless we can have a fair, brokered convention should Biden agree to step down, then this may be a moot point.
Kamala may think she’s next in line, and unwilling to step aside. If that’s the case, then our options go from bad to worse.
This is difficult, and made worse because it’s an unforced error with dire consequences. What’s truly sad, is the fact we’re even in this position, with only four months to go before the election, with so much at stake.
Robert, it's a dilemma. Either situation could spell disaster. We all have to consider being careful what we wish for.
Robert, I’m confused by your reference to Kamala given my understanding, that were Biden to release his delegates, the nominating process would rest with them. I expect, on Day 1, they would start cycling through votes until a candidate received the requisite number. Meantime, a roster of highly qualified candidates, I imagine Kamala among them, would be battling for the nomination. Personally, like Steve, I believe the benefits of an energized contest would far outweigh any chaos that might ensue. As such, I am baffled by the resistance of Substackers on several sites, particularly while Biden continues to hemorrhage votes from different groups for different reasons.
As a final point, I don’t imagine I’m alone in relishing the thought of our nominee taking full advantage of the bully pulpit, speaking fluently and extemporaneously in situations from which Biden’s handlers regularly protect him.
———————
Postscript: I neglected to mention, according to the rules, that Superdelegates would weigh in on the second ballot.
How time turns around the aging process is unclear to me.
Running the country is evidence it was a bad debate, not cognitive decline.
“He has to tell you that 80-somethings (jeez, I’ve never written that before) suffer cognitive decline?? So do 60-somethings.”—Rick Dunne
Yes, in a contest that pits democracy against fascism, he should; especially, when it’s been an issue in the party and media for over a year, and he and his team have denied it incessantly.
“You don’t seem to like the way it looks - but there is absolutely no indication that he is at all confused about anything.”—Rick Dunne
Seriously? First off, looks are irrelevant. And “no indication” he was confused about anything? I’m glad he defeated Medicare! Or how about his two minute unhinged rant about abortion, which was incomprehensible.
Trump was able to say he didn’t repeal Roe, is for abortion rights, and got away with it because the rest of us were completely flabbergasted at Biden’s responses.
Trump lied about everything, and every lie went unchallenged. And unchallenged lies eventually become fact, especially when the MSM and the rest of us are focused on whether Biden will even be alive in November.
Whether real or imagined, this is our reality. How can we fight Trump’s lies and dystopian plans for our future, when we’re playing defense the entire time?
This is an unforced error with major repercussions. I won’t allow my emotions to decide my vote. This election is bigger than any one man; our republic is on the menu.
So no, I don’t agree this is just one “90 minute” mistake. The president we elect is the president expected to lead for four years, not one or two.
Biden is weak with the youth vote thanks to Gaza, the African American vote thanks to his inability to tout his achievements effectively. He’s losing even Hispanics at a grave pace.
In fact, Trump and republicans are taking credit for much of Biden’s achievements (they didn’t even vote for), while we’re debating whether Biden should run again.
So seriously, take a deep breath and truly think whether Thursday night was an aberration, or a harbinger of bad things to come. I’m not dumping Biden over one bad night. It’s lots of bad decisions, and Thursday night was the final straw.
This makes me concerned for our future, that our country will wallow in those whose perceptions of blame and self-knowledge take us on the wrong dangerous path.
"the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" History speaks for itself. The playbook if obvious and we must know it and not let it happen again.
Steve has his defenders, legitimately so. I have no problem with that. However, I have two points to make. One, the Palin question is neither insult nor a failure to acknowledge payment for whatever. It is simply a reference to a mistake of historical proportion. Whatever role Steve played in it -- and I think it is unfair at best to blame it exclusively on McCain -- he was a part of it and at a minimum he failed to prevent it. In my view -- to which I am entitled -- removing Biden is of similar if not greater mistaken magnitude. Worse, beating the drums and leading a charge to demand the change is truly wrong-headed or worse. Two, no salutary, patriotic or heroic purpose is served by failing to recognize that we are virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent. That will only change if Biden himself -- with a very limited circle of input -- decides otherwise. You can wail and gnash your teeth over that, but it's the reality. We all should be recognizing that Trump -- not Biden -- is the issue and the challenge. Go read the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board editorial from yesterday.
“Two, no salutary, patriotic or heroic purpose is served by failing to recognize that we are virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent. That will only change if Biden himself -- with a very limited circle of input -- decides otherwise. You can wail and gnash your teeth over that, but it's the reality. We all should be recognizing that Trump -- not Biden -- is the issue and the challenge.”
I agree and disagree with your point. Yes, ultimately Biden will make a decision; however, that decision will be predicated on the mindset of his constituency that supports him. If we decide we will not vote for Biden, then he will have no choice then to step aside or lose. And that’s a decision the polls will convey over the next few weeks. Can Biden recover? Maybe, or maybe not; time will tell.
To say that we are “virtually irrevocably committed to Biden as Trump's opponent” is nonsense. We as a collective group “were” committed, but many of us now have legitimate doubts, based on misinformation fed to us by his campaign. For over a year questions have e emerge as to his cognitive abilities, and for over a year we have been told that Biden is better than ever, and up to the challenge. Thursday night would vehemently disagree.
Biden may be the best, or only choice moving forward; however, given that no one can guarantee that Biden’s cognitive dissonance doesn’t decline further, having a Plan B makes perfect sense.
Saying that Biden should have the RIGHT to decide if he wants to run is based on what exactly? Is there some sovereign, disqualifying law or rule that prevents any exception or dispositive circumstantial intervention? His suddened revealed senility in the debate revealed two things. (1) He in no way beyond all questions fit to occupy the most important seat in the free world. (2). His continued denials about his obvious senility were simply straight-out lies misleading the country. Even if he is elected, should he have the keys to the nukes; is he really remotely capable of taking on the leaders of the increasing volatile world when he demonstrated that he was incapable of even taking on Trump, who could have been bested by anyone in the moment tuned into, listening to his pompous lies, distortions, untruths? If Biden is elected, the whole world will be on the edge of their seats daily, waiting for another shoe to drop.
Yes, even Schmidt has said, over and over again, that this election HAS to be about Trump, not Biden. We must take our time, energy and money and destroy Trump.
You know, Steve, the decision has already been made. So, as much as your piece is interesting U.S. Presidential history, it has no bearing today. The horse has already bolted from the stable - Dem Convention a month away, Election 4 months away. One debate does NOT EVER disqualify a candidate. Not ever.
Joe Biden can not quit. It goes against everything he is, everything he was taught. You must know that. Please know that his numbers haven’t moved, anecdotes notwithstanding.
Might I suggest your energy be redirected to explaining why he is the better candidate for the USA. Why every voter must search their conscience and vote for the one man who can save democracy?
Democracy is teetering. Not just in America, but around the world… in Canada, in France, in other European countries. We must have Joe Biden - the elder of elders - elected. To remind us where we’ve been and where we’ll be if we don’t defeat Trump & MAGA.
Get. Out. The. Vote. MUST NOW be the only rallying cry.
From my point of view I don’t care if we need to get Biden over the finish line while on a ventilator but many do.
Barak Obama had a bad debate. Biden wheezed and stumbled through an epic failure. There i a difference.
To say Biden had a bad debate is like saying Mrs. Lincoln had a bad night at the theater. Pretty close anyway.
And Obama won. Your analogy, while very clever, is way off the mark. He didn’t wheeze - he did stumble. No doubt. I’m not making excuses for him. It was a bad debate for Biden.
But one debate doesn’t normally decide the Presidency. Record does. Character does. Likability does.
Trump has none of any of that. Biden scores high on all.
If America doesn’t choose Biden it won’t be because of his debate. It will be because they prefer Trump…. It’s that simple.
The job at hand for you, for me, for Steve, for all of goodwill, is to make sure they remember exactly what Trump is - to use your analogy: he’s John Wilkes Booth.
That is also a false analogy…Obama could recover from one poor debate…I don’t think Biden can. Obama was neither old nor frail (or feeble?). I truly believe that if Biden remains the nominee, this country is doomed to a Trump autocracy! There is still time to “close the barn door” so we don’t lose our country! We need a strong, younger candidate (not Harris!) if we want to save our democracy and we need that person now!
Again. Your opinion. I don’t share it.
(Although, I do agree Harris isn’t a viable Presidential candidate. So, would like to see her resign and replace with someone who is one.)
Biden will decide. He has decided to stay so far.
I think our energy about his fitness is a waste of time.
It’s not worthy of discussion.
What is worthy is how to get out our Dem vote. How to defeat the most incompetent threat to not just the USA, but to world order.
In my view, That is the focus now required.
Please watch the NC rally with Biden -he's on his game- the day after the debate, his speech in Normandy, and the SOTU address that are very recent. Thanks.
Obama was able to easily recover because he was not suffering from a decline due to age. Not to mention that Obama did not look as if he was one foot in the grave during his debate.
Even Steve Schmidt, over and over again, has said this election has to be about Trump (not Biden). We need to refocus on the insanity, corruption, felonies, Project 2025, Fascism, etc. that ARE Trump. Use his own words like the Lincoln Project does on an epic scale of advertising and social-media algorithms. Thanks.
What is off the mark is your understanding of the comparison. Yes, Obama had a bad debate. THAT's is what you call having one bad debate because you indeed can come back from that kind of bad debate. Biden on the other hand...
Are you getting it now?
You have decided Biden can’t come back from his. Thats where we part company. He did come back that evening/next day in NC. We expect him to do the same in the next one.
Clearly you don’t think he can…or that he should.
You want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
You also think debates decide the Presidency. I do not.
Pretty sure we will have to disagree. And we’ll see which of us is proven correct in November.
Many people, even Democrats, have been influenced by the onslaught of MAGA propaganda, amplified by social-media algorithms, which exaggerated Biden's decline. His debate performance was terrible, but not representative of Biden's ability to function and to govern well.
While reading from a teleprompter in NC he is able to manage slightly better. He yells now in his speech to portray strength.
He is having difficulty and has for some time. That is not going to get better. He is clearly struggling. How can people not see this or refuse to.
I will vote for Joe Biden and blue all the way but this really is not the way to go forward. I also would be absolutely thrilled to vote for Shapiro and Whitmer if it happens.
I want us to support the Dem ticket…up and down the ballot.
Biden is the candidate today. He still has my support.
If he decides to resign, I will support the replacement. It is his decision alone.
It’s not about Biden, it’s about defeating Trump. That’s my goal.
The noise about Biden is not helpful to achieving it.
Brilliant analogy
Not only a bad debate. If anyone cares to get out of their heavily filtered media bubble for a even an hour a week, you will see that Biden has real problems getting into vehicles despite being helped, has rejected any interview that requires him to speak ad hoc (and not read from a teleprompter like he did even for the 5-minute speech after the debate), that real doctors who specialize in the type of problems Biden is having (both physically and mentally) are asking who is running the country right NOW, that reporters are admitting to behind-the-scenes conversations where they have been told this happens to Biden regularly even in the oval and that he has to have special color-coded notecards to hold important conversations.
If Biden had a decent VP, many could live with what is happening. Kamala would be horrible as president. Her approval rating is lower than Biden's, which is quite a feat.
Absolutely pathetic response. You and the rest of your clueless believers in the impossible are driving this nation over a cliff. May you live long to experience Trumpism in all its glory.
Your anger and rude response doesn’t change reality. Biden is the Dem candidate. Thats a fact. You may disagree with that decision. It’s his decision to make. Looks to me like he’s made it. He’s heard from all of the pundits, advisors, etc. He’s the candidate.
So, all the naysaying is doing nothing more than making more noise.
“Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party”…. That includes Women coming to the aid.... ‘cause do you really think the majority of American women will allow Trump to take us back to the 1930s, 40s, ‘50s, when we’ve worked our tails off to make our own decisions - the least of which is decisions over our own bodies? Oh, hell no!
Trump hates women. He wants us to be handmaidens. Biden will stop that.
All American women know that. No matter how they vote.
So, please, take a deep breath, join your local Dem group and get out the vote!
Totally agree and stand with Biden. He is on the side of womens rights and democracy. Trump is not and he’s despicable to say the least. He will damage our country beyond repair.Republicans want us to be in chaos. The talk of choosing another candidate shows them we are, we are causing our own division and showing WE don’t believe we can win with Biden.This helps the Republicans.
The truth is difficult. And the truth also is what we don't know or understand CAN absolutely hurt us. The noise is coming FROM the pundits. Pick up Ruth Ben-Ghiat's book Strongmen or anything along those lines, or read history of Germany and Hitler from his early days and especially 1918 to the liberation. It will open your eyes, the similarities are frightening, real and too important to ignore. You may feel like Mark listening to the actual noise.
Right On!! Thanks.
Unfortunately there are no congressmen, congresswomen, or governors of sufficient national stature who can replace Biden at this late date. It would end in turmoil and failure to try. Any of those whom you mentioned should have tossed their hat into the ring many months ago so that they could be adequately vetted and thereby gained that recognition. If DJT wins and America dies, Biden and his coterie will not be at fault. It will be the fault of the cowardly and traitorous Republican congressmen who could have easily stopped this tragedy the day after Jan 6.
Many fair points, Max. I would make a counter on your point about "should have tossed their hat into the ring months ago". By Biden choosing to run, he shut down any possibility of an actual primary. The DNC party would not allow it and provided mere lip service. Dean Phillips' ill-advisedly put his name in the ring and was never a serious alternative. No one who was a viable D alternative could run once Biden announced. You don't primary an incumbent as it is a sure way to lose in the general election as you've provided the opponent there with all the ammo needed to defeat the incumbent, should the incumbent survive the primary.
And if Biden loses, and TFG rises to the authoritarian dictator running what he views as his kingdom, not sure who else will own that. Sure, ultimately the voters, but not having a candidate able to generate excitement and new support is a valid and real concern. I mean, Hillary lost to TFG in 2016 and was blamed for running a poor or at least ineffective campaign in many areas or swing states. Why shouldn't Biden and his team own some of the responsibility if he fails to win this November?
All said, as I've mentioned several times since Thursday's absolutely humiliating debate, I will still support Biden - as will everyone here suggesting he either remain or step aside - because TFG is a grave threat to our country and democracy.
Don't forget the scores of utter morons who call themselves UNDECIDED. They count for A LOT more votes.
Absolute nonsense.
Complete common sense.
I keep thinking about Rudyard Kipling "If" poem: "If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you..."
I keep reading Mr. Schmidt, because he hits the mark more often than not, and I do think he has integrity. I like his passion.
However, these panic attacks from certain (not all) Never Trumpers like Schmidt and Klein are ridiculous. Biden stumbled, and badly. He's an old man and he sure did look it in that debate--although, he perked up for the after party in Atlanta and at the Raleigh rally the next day. He carries a load that Trump does not these days, and he had a bad cold.
Thing is, Trump is terribly old too, and Trump, despite being pumped up on Adderall, did worse in that debate than media will ever admit. He showed exactly who he is the moment he did his bully stroll onto the stage, cocked his head arrogantly side to side, and spouted lie after lie after lie. MAGA doesn't care about the truth--but a lot of people out here do. MAGA loves bullies, most people do not, and we don't fail to recognize one when we see one.
In the end, as I told an ex-pat friend overseas, if America chooses Trump over Biden because of age, ignoring Trump's flat out lies and Biden's considerable accomplishments over the past four years, we never deserved Democracy in the first place.
It is way too late to change horses midstream. Biden is a competent public servant with strong and deep morals, and plenty of determination in the face of a bully. He can come back, and America likes underdogs. I've always preferred a younger candidate such as Newsom, Buttigieg, or Whitmer, but thinking hard about who would have been ready to run in this cycle, I think Biden was not wrong in deciding to run again in 2024; I am positive it was not ego but a cold political calculation about whether he could win.
On top of all of this, I watch carefully what America's mortal enemies and media that has relentlessly criticized and minimized Biden--China/Russia trolls and looking at you, Mr. Sulzberger of NY Times, for starters--what do they shout and crow about lately?
They are screaming for Biden to step aside. They want him out of the picture and have desperately done everything they can to kick him aside because they know he is the best bet against Trump at this moment.
That they are doubling down now is to me is a very strong tip-off. I'd really rather not do what they want right now. I'd rather not play into their ugly and twisted agendas.
My head is bloodied but unbowed - invictus
100% incorrect. But thanks for making it possible for America to go to bed on election night early. This campaign, as currently constituted, is over. And why? Because you and your ilk are afraid? I thought this was an election in which one candidate was an existential threat to democracy and that defeating it was everything?? I must have seriously overrated your passion to save the Republic.
I think you misread. Try again. I will be out there, and I will canvass and do all I can to help Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot to win.
Democrats
are always expected to "do the right thing"
In this case, doing the right thing is caving, causing chaos, and pretty much helping and enabling trump the Fraud, the adjudicated rapist, the convicted Felon become President again .
If these were normal times - where there was no threat to the country turning into an Authoritarian
Project 2025 agenda . I might agree with you . But this is too serious . And Biden can Beat trump.
Trump is being USED - for his tax cuts, and his willingness to go along and implement the Heritage Foundations visual for this country. It would take YEARS AND YEARS to clean up that mess.
I don't want to wake up with less rights . and less freedoms than when I went to bed.
I don't want to wake up and see the Felon pick out more justices for the supreme court with a smug smirk on his face.
I don't want to have ANY religion shoved down my kids throats or my throat . Freedom of Religion means...Everyone of Every Religion can freely practice their faith. NOT that Christianity is the Religion of the country..where bibles and 10 commandments are in every class room .
Where I am now being lectured by rapists, pedophiles, frauds, and felons - On what is MORAL and what is NOT. we are living in more than upside down world...
the Republicans today are Celebrating the Year of the Felon . Every single republican in congress.
every single republican running for a seat in congress . Has some kind of Rap sheet. WTF?
and they ...THEY are going to "SCHOOL US" on morality and family values ...GTFOH.
I CARE ABOUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY STEVE...I find you extremely intelligent with an incredible vocabulary and ability to write. ---but Biden gracefully bowing out.
needs to be either done by the people?
or ...NOT?
The Democratic base is set. Who's to say a great many uncommitteds are waiting to vote Democrat as long as it's anyone other than Biden? Especially now. He had a 38% approval rate BEFORE the debate.
I am not hearing that?
I am not hearing that oh..I will vote for anyone but Biden ..no, I am hearing I would vote for anyone other than trump/
doesn't say in the constitution that you can;t be a rapist fraud felon to run for president .
also doesn;t say a word about being old/ and having a hard time debating a fucked up niagra falls of Liars.
Spot on Magdalena
And now it’s down to 27%! (CNN news this morning).
CNN “News” now carries the same import to me as Fox “News.”
Whatever….
Enough with the Biden-bashing. Take a break and assess where things are going. Trump has managed to divide us and will conquer us if you don’t stop tearing Biden down. Please stop propelling us toward a Trump takeover. We’ve got Biden’s back. Please join us.
Steve, you were involved in the launch of Dean Phillips for President. I believe you were sincere, but you were wrong, his campaign went nowhere and was a distraction. I believe you want to see Trump defeated. I also believe you are sincere in your belief that Biden should step down. I believe you're wrong and that you may be letting your emotions overwhelm your logic. You do tend to go down rabbit holes. I also think you've lost your faith in American voters and I certainly understand why. Trump got elected, but he badly lost the popular vote (yes, I know all about the Electoral College). Republicans operate as if they're the Borg (Star Trek The Next Generation), Democrats do not. There can be no public discussion of Trump stepping down among Republicans which is why we see almost no op-eds or political pundits calling for Trump to step down, even though he's an adjudicated rapist and a convicted felon. There was a dramatic drop in debate viewership. Post-debate polling shows virtually no change in support for either candidate and focus groups talked a lot about Trump's lies (they did acknowledge Biden's poor showing), and some evidence that Latinos are moving slightly toward Biden. There is no historical evidence that debates change the needle in the long-run and, given that this debate was so early, there's still enough time to move past this it. Trump is convinced he "won" and the more cocky Trump gets the worse he becomes. "Black jobs" and yelling "immigration" all the time, for every issues have not gone over well, as Biden calling Trump whiney hits home. Trump needs more than his MAGA base. Trump and Republicans are giving conflicting messages on whether early voting and mail-in voting are a good or a bad thing and this has an impact. Biden had much better fundraising the day of and the day after the debate. Biden's speech and "performance" the next day was back up to par. Biden has been in politics for a very long time and he acknowledged that he didn't debate well (contrasting Trump's position that he never makes a mistake, he doesn't even have to ask God for forgiveness). Biden has shown over his career that he can take criticism and change. Trump sees such change as weakness. The discussions about replacing Biden also show the enormous problems with doing that - delegates, national name recognition, fundraising, ground game, short timeframe, etc. I understand why pundits and some donors are concerned. I also know that you seem convinced that the voting public isn't paying attention, but you aren't paying attention to women voters. We're used to men not paying attention to us on political issues. There are currently more women voters than men and it's mostly women doing the work behind the state abortion ballot initiatives; abortion is about as personal as you can get. Men didn't lose a constitutionally protected right. Abortion is kryptonite for Republicans and that's not going to change. It's irrelevant what Trump says about the issue, Project 2025 spells it out and there's more and more public discussions about Project 2025. The same is true for younger voters as they hear Trump saying climate change is a hoax and maybe you'll get more oceanfront properties. The super conservative Supreme Court allowed bump stocks and younger voters want more gun control. There's a lot of activity in getting younger voters registered and universities will be in session in November which is why Republicans are trying to stop college students from voting. Yes, you still have to get these people to actually vote but I believe the message is getting through, even if we don't see that happening on a daily basis. There are some people for vote based on Party lines regardless of the candidate, there are some people who vote based on name recognition, but I think there are even more people who vote based on how they feel about a candidate. Obama tapped into this. Biden's policies are popular and he makes people feel good. Trump has no policies and he makes people feel bad, and angry. We also have two very, very important things about to happen. The Supreme Court will rule on Monday about Presidential immunity. Most people who believe in democracy are not happy with the Supreme Court right now, but if they send it back to DC the trial can proceed. It won't be decided by November, but a lot of the evidence can be made public. The second thing will be Trump's sentencing in a couple of weeks and people on both sides will not be happy with the results. When these two things happen the first debate will be off the radar. The news of today is always pushed aside for the news of tomorrow, especially when Trump is involved. I think the pendulum is swinging and Biden will be able to defeat Trump. There was a lot of talk early on about giving people reasons to vote for Biden other than they hate Trump. We may be back to hating Trump and I have no problem with that.
Love your optimism. Hope you’re right.
Excellent! Also, ANY candidate who would replace Biden would be subject to extreme propaganda smears from the Trump/MAGA team, amplified by social-media algorithms.
I'm not worried about Biden's ability to govern. I believe in him. And whie I am concerned, though, about his ability to win the coming election, I see no viable alternative. I believe our energies would be best spent by whole heartedly supporting Biden and doing whatever we can to assure his re-election. I hope that you will use your smart, articulate voice to do this in future Warnings.
Steve is GREAT at fighting MAGA! I hope he will focus his energy on destroying TFG/MAGA.
Brilliant essay and I stand with it. Joe Biden must step aside for the good of the country. His candidacy is finished. We cannot turn away from it. It was right there on Thursday night. And Steve is right. Joe Biden has nothing to be ashamed of. He and his administration have performed solidly. I am proud of him as a president, but his candidacy has been permanently disabled. My stomach dropped watching that debate. My friends and I, after all the politicking and donating, got a sense of what the evening of November 5th will feel like when Trump is announced as the winner, but luckily there is still a chance. Trump is extremely beatable if we get a candidate who can make that case. Time is short and the Democrats have to act now.
Trump was actually more incoherent than Biden, but the fat orange fake messiah talks fast and very few people actually listen to what he says. I keep thinking at some point he's going to do or say something so flagrantly evil and demented--even for him--that no vaguely reasonable person can possibly vote for him. After the debate I'd say the chances of that remain good.
Thank you for a reasonable reply. The main attack that will be used against Biden is that he is feeble. That debate cemented that argument. Joe Biden was tied or behind in the battle ground states before the election. We will now wake up to polling that will show that it is worsening. We can not count on Trump to defeat himself. There are not enough vaguely reasonable Americans to elect Joe Biden. If there were, Biden would be massively ahead. Joe Biden was our last line of defense against Trump. Trump rolled over Biden and now the road to the White House is open to him. I see that there is danger on switching the candidate now, but there is greater danger in leaving Biden as the candidate.
From Susan Dumas, editorial from Michigan Advance:
“But here's what I do know. It is patently absurd to have major newspapers and politicos demanding that Biden exit the race when they never said boo after Trump declared he was running again less than two years after attempting to foment a coup, after he was found liable for raping and defaming writer E. Jean Carroll, after he was ordered to pay $454 million in a civil fraud case or after he was found guilty of almost three dozen felonies in a hush money cased tied to the 2016 election.
How any of that is less disqualifying than looking old and sick at one debate is the biggest example of pundit brain I've ever seen.
There's only one man who should unequivocally drop out of the race. Anyone who tells you that it's not Donald Trump is trying to sell you something.”
Exactly!!’ This is how gaslit, numb and absurd the media and pundit class have become and have made the American people become.
I sometimes think Steve is too hard on the media but no more. I get it. That so much of the media just normalizes and moves on after every Trumpian abomination…. They should put more energy into shouting that Trump is unfit and needs to step down. I know the corrupt and cowardly Republican Party will ignore it. Say it anyway. Repeatedly. I keep thinking of Timothy Sneiders rules for fighting tyranny. Do not willingly submit.
“Timothy Snyder”. Apologies for the misspelling…
Trump should not be a candidate, and there never should have been a debate.
You don't debate a fascist criminal and traitor nominated by a cult-like party.
But two wrongs don't make it right.
Excellent! So true!!
God help of us all…..as Democrats we embrace shades of gray…..we have always understood the world is never just black or white. That’s why I love all the decent and wonderful people who are us. Unfortunately we are up against a vast majority of Republicans who are the opposite. For them it’s either black or white, party above country, tribe before democracy, you’re either with them or against them. They don’t care about nuance or virtue. But now I have to ask you to look at all the incredible Republican voices out there who do indeed embrace truth over lies, good over evil, justice over ideology. I’m talking about Steve, George Conway, Anna Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Stuart Stevens, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and countless more. No decent person I know would kick a dog because he is old, least of all the Steve we know who wrote about his love for Teddy. So just stop. We’re all sad and disappointed about Biden’s performance. We all understand he was pummeled by non stop horrendously outrageous lies. We have to listen to all voices and come up with a solution…..and quickly. For once, I have to shut the f up and hope to a higher power there is a solution that actually works. The current Republican leadership in Congress and the Courts is outright death for this nation by supporting some of the most vile people to emerge in our lifetime….Putin, Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
Well said! fyi: Steve is a registered Democrat.
Mr. Steve, your analysis is spot on. And to think that eight people hold the keys to the castle is worrisome. Joe Biden is weak and befuddled without a teleprompter and notes. Keep beating the drum!
It occurred to me that there was a good reason for the DOJ to refuse to release the tape of Biden’s interview with the Special Counsel investigating his handling of classified material. It may be worse than his debate performance.
Absolutely fair. They provided the transcript. Many pundits after the debate said, "Well if you read the transcript, Biden won the debate." If that's the case, they knew months and months ago. Ugh... No one cares about the transcript. No one. It's how someone appears, and Biden appeared lost, confused, and weak. A really bad look.
What a shame and very sad day if our country and its people would rather vote for a dangerous autocratic candidate because he “looked better”on television. Trump only sounded coherent because he didn’t answer the questions. He didn’t even bother listening to the questions. He spewed lies he memorized with fortitude very fast. That seems to be what the MAGA party does now. Lie loudly with conviction.Other countries listen to their elders with respect. Paying attention to the words, not how they are delivered. With respect Trump told so many falsehoods it was embarrassing for us and the country. Biden may have looked “feeble” but doesn’t it matter what his policies are and how he will lead the country? Or should we give up our democracy because the lover of dictators sounded forthright and spoke his lies without a stutter?
Hey Dani - Thank you for your response. I agree with every single thing you said, but too many people are ill- or misinformed. So, yes, unfortunately many will vote for a person who looked better. Should they? Hell no, but will they? Sadly, yes. We've all heard since we were young or at least younger that perception equals reality. The perceived reality of many is that TFG was stronger, and regardless of messaging and ALL the effing lies and criminality, came across as the stronger candidate. I mean, that this race is even close, is a clear indication and a red brightly blinking light that too many people don't give a damn about policy.
Biden still has my vote if he stays in the race. TFG is a criminal, lunatic, and will kill this country. I truly believe that. But that doesn't mean much to far too many people. And yes, that is the devastating reality. Also consider that after the 4 years of chaos of his first term, 74 million people turned out to vote for him. Most of those people were told to vote only in person in the middle of a pandemic. That's 11 million (!!??) more people than voted for him in 2016. Still think people who vote like that give a damn about policy?
Without proper education in history, civics and critical thinking skills, we're doomed.
no one gives a shit .
trump is a rapist fraud and convicted Felon ...
if trump can run
its says nothing in the constitution that you have to be of sound mind.
Yes, TFG is all of those things and more. "No one gives a shit" will be proven in November. I would suggest that TFG's support and MAGA hardliners don't care one bit about all those things you accurately say about him. Not being of sound mind, or the appearance of it, will have an effect on people as it will diminish the new support needed.
Oh my..of course.
Thank you Steve for your history lesson and paean to American exceptionalism. What we must keep in mind is that our nation is a nation of survivors of crises, and people who have overcome adversity time after time. We prevailed in the Revolutionary War, although divided, and against long odds, against a superior foe. We held the Union together in the Civil War, and abolished slavery, although we were again terribly divided at the time. We survived great depressions, and were victorious in World Wars I and II, and made most of the world safe for democracy. I have no doubt that our American citizens will rise to the occasion and do the right thing. We all must vote our consciences.
Wow, Jamie Raskin is pretty damn awesome and smart for a politician. Perhaps too honest and principled. Of course, he's in a safe district, I assume.
I have noticed an uptick in push-back when Steve offers the most reasonable and thoughtful analysis. It's totally OK to not share the same opinion, but so many people just turn aggressive if not nasty, and they appear to hover ever so close to the cult like fanaticism we see on the other "side". Of course, I'm not, not going to vote for Biden, if he is indeed the choice, but the issue isn't our vote it's the sideline vote that sees Biden as decrepit, physically weak and on Death's door-step. I personally know people, say Midwestern, male trades-workers, listen to Adam Corolla or Joe Rogan, social moderates who, short-sighted as I think it is, vote based on projected strength. If the decided's are voting Dem anyway, then why fall in love with one candidate. I think bringing in a younger, more energetic candidate that can go toe-to toe with Trump's BS onslaught at least gives us the chance to cast a bigger net of influence over undecided voters and seems like a completely reasonable consideration. All I know is that if I thought my pleas with the aforementioned undecided-voter we're ignored before, then those images of Biden from the debate was the proverbial nail in that conversation. I'd have to agree with them, yet I'll still vote for whatever Dem isn't Trump. Is it frustrating that we are this shallow and unserious as a nation?(or at least a large percentage) Absolutely, but we are well past the point of all hands and ideas on deck at this point. What I know about politics could fit into a thimble, and I respect Steve's vast knowledge and generosity of that knowledge even if I don't always agree. For better or worse, we're in this shit together.
100% correct. Everyone here (except the aggrieved Frank Lee) would vote for a dried out baked potato over a fascist. It's not about US on this page, it's about a few thousand low-information voters in a few swing states. That's it. And winning is everything this time.
Maybe I'll write in "Dried Out Baked Potato" on my ballot. (That's a joke!)
Yes!!!!
I listened this afternoon to an interview with Jamie Raskin. He was the first ranking Democrat I have heard that did not avoid the issue or gas light people.
He said “a serious conversation” is under way about whether Joe Biden will be the nominee.
He also said if Biden is not the nominee, he will still have a central role at the convention and will give the keynote address.