Chris Christie is moving in the polls while Pence, Haley and Hutchinson remain stuck in the political equivalent of a vegetative state. DeSantis remains in second position, but his trajectory has been a plummet that would track Felix Baumgartner’s descent line.
Senator Tim Scott will be the chief beneficiary of further attrition by DeSantis. He is primed to move up into a competitive space. It will put him in direct competition with DeSantis in the early fall period of the campaign, which will preface the long turn towards the early primary states — and the grueling competition that will follow.
Timing is an under-appreciated force in a presidential campaign. The candidate and the moment have to align for there to be a possibility of capturing the White House. Chris Christie would have been the GOP nominee in 2012 had he gone for it, but he hesitated. He was an also-ran in 2016, and has been written off by the familiar pundits who are almost always wrong about everything. Christie has moved first in the primary race, filling the truth-telling, anti-Trump space. How he got there will be a constant drag on his campaign, and is a fundamental design flaw of his own creation. Yet, Christie’s burdens are significantly less than his competitors of which he is, by far, the most talented in every category that matters in the endurance race that is a presidential campaign.
Donald Trump has become a ratings kiss of death as evidenced by the low ratings associated with the events produced for him by networks like CNN. Trump isn’t the star he once was. He has faded away into the leading actor in an ensemble of weakness, cowardice, perfidy and Chris Christie. There is no drama in the race whatsoever beyond the looming confrontation between Chris Christie and Donald Trump in the coming debates. Should Chris Christie have done what he is about to do many years ago? Yes, he should have. The important thing is that he is doing it now, and it is not too late. Other candidates who have long trembled in front of Trump are making their first tepid criticisms of the man who was untouchable just weeks ago.
Trump will be a man running in cement over the months ahead. His indictments and investigations will glue him to the ground. The wheels of justice grind slowly, as they say. His bill has come due. Trump is deflating in real time.
Christie was too early in 2012 and too late in 2016. It is a mistake to write him off for the GOP nomination. He has an experienced team of pragmatic advisors who are smart, sane and strategic. None of them are under any illusions about Christie’s substantial deficits. However, none are blinded to his substantial attributes that are missed by the punditocracy.
There is another dynamic that is building within the 2024 campaign. The American people aren’t keen on a Biden-Trump rematch.
Think about the toddler game where a board contains cutouts in different shapes that match differently shaped blocks. The political system is currently offering a square hole to a country looking for a round one. What will happen as that block is banged over and over again into the wood board? It will start to crack.
Already there are some fissures showing. The nascent Biden campaign will enter the summer facing an opponent who is polling between 15 and 20%. The strategy of pretending he doesn’t exist will crack in early autumn as Robert Kennedy Jr. climbs in the polls towards 30% and early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. The insistence that these states won’t count in the Democratic primaries by party officials in Washington, DC, is delusional. Losses by an incumbent president under any circumstances would be catastrophic politically. Keep an eye on the filing deadlines in the fall. The chances that the race is settled go down every day. Gavin Newsom is playing his role in the great game near perfectly. His sparring with Sean Hannity showed he is ready for prime time. He represents youth, renewal, and a Democratic Party that can confidently communicate about the dangers of an extremist movement the country is facing.
The political race will lock in place between July 4th and Labor Day. After that, it will move quickly and promises to be as volatile as any race has been in recent memory. Anything can happen. Buckle up!
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Whatever Christie can do to help take down trump and save democracy I will be grateful. But, vote for him? Never
"Trump will be a man running in cement over the months ahead."
Oh, I hope you are right, this wonderful picture in my imagination.