Joe Manchin appears to be running for president

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia (left) and former Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah headline an event by the centrist group No Labels, on July 17, 2023, at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in Manchester, N.H. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

Washington, DC, Democrats seem a bit lost about how best to deal with Senator Joe Manchin, and the possibility veering towards likelihood that he will be an independent candidate for the presidency. He will likely be teamed with either Jon Huntsman or Larry Hogan. 

Thus far, No Labels seems utterly unpersuaded by the notion that the American political system would be “spoiled” by a third choice in the event of a Biden-Trump rematch. They seem deeply unsympathetic towards the pleas of DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, who has said the following about third-party candidates:

This is not the time in order to experiment with third-party candidates.

This is not the time to play around on the margins. And what we see is a lot of folks who want to be relevant and try to be relevant in these elections and not looking at the big picture that we are not going to — we got to reelect Joe Biden. We have to reelect Kamala Harris.

Moreover, No Labels seems well on their way to securing the ballot access required, though the cost will be as high as $175 million to fight through the avalanche of litigation and opposition coming their way. The oft-cited $70 million dollar fundraising figure isn’t close to being enough. If, however, No Labels succeeds in fielding a 50- state ticket it won’t just shatter the conventional wisdom, but likely the American two-party political system. Here is what would happen:

1. A hypothetical Manchin-Huntsman ticket would quickly climb north of 30% in national polls. The fundamental structure of the race would be a three-way contest with 10 percent up for grabs. The usual suspect battleground states would dramatically expand as the candidates abandon majority strategies in favor of winning pluralities.  There is a complete lack of imagination in Washington, DC, around what this race looks like. 

2. Thus far, the Democratic reaction to No Labels has been to wish it away. This quote by Senator Dick Durbin is a case in point:

   Joe [Manchin] is America’s biggest political tease. And I trust that he’ll make a judgment to run for reelection in West Virginia. I hope he will.

   Here’s what Manchin had to say yesterday:

   I’ve never been in any race I’ve ever spoiled. I’ve been in races to win. And if I get in a race, I’m going to win.

   President Biden’s campaign has put forward a dubious proposition, and placed it at the core of its re-election strategy. It is that Joe Biden alone can beat Donald Trump, and thus save American democracy. 

   What happens when it becomes a three-way race? The Democratic Party has all but declared that Donald Trump will win that race because Joe Biden is incapable of winning with a No Labels ticket in the race. Doesn’t that raise an important question that should be discussed out loud and often?  Who are the Democratic presidential candidates that could assemble a political plurality and win if Biden and his team continue to make clear that he can’t? Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer come immediately to mind as candidates who wouldn’t necessarily start the race in a state of immediate concession to defeat.  

3. Why does nobody in the political and media establishment of the country believe that in an election between:

   1. Biden-Harris 

   2. Manchin-Huntsman 

   3. Trump-MTG 

   B can win ? 

   Also, why does nobody covering the 2024 election seem to understand that the Democratic Party isn’t going to get a vote on whatever it is No Labels might or might not do? They are going to have to react to it, and there is a big difference. I wonder sometimes if anyone in Washington understands that. 

4. The Manchin candidacy would be novel, but his messaging is pablum. Dull, ponderous, wishy-washy lamentations about a world that has never existed in a moment where wishing it into existence is a mark less of leadership than delusion. Here is an example as reported by NBC News:

   “Let’s see where everybody goes. Let’s see what happens,” said Manchin, an outspoken critic of partisanship in Washington. “Maybe they’ll come to their senses and start doing the job they were elected to do.”

   Manchin dismissed Democratic fears that a No Labels-fueled presidential run would boost Trump.

   “Nobody at No Labels that I’ve ever spoken to would ever be a spoiler,” Manchin said. “There is no spoiling going [on] here to give an advantage to one side or the other. We’re hoping both sides come to their sensible middle.”

   “When are people going to say enough’s enough?” Manchin said about partisan politics. “We hear it every day. ‘Enough is enough. Can’t you work together? What about us? What about this great country of ours?’”

   Manchin will have to get a lot sharper. Observations of the obvious won’t be enough. He will need a razor-sharp message stripped bare of the doe-eyed banalities and tedious declarations of “why can’t we all get along?” in order to win.  

5. News networks will have to accommodate three conventions, not two, in the summer of 2024. No Labels can go last if it chooses.  

6. Some defeated GOP candidates will endorse the No Labels ticket, not Trump.  

The road ahead is long and unpredictable. Buckle up. Nothing is decided.