Apathy and fanaticism will lead to Trump’s re-election
Two things happened during the Iowa caucuses, which matter: turnout collapsed, and Trump scored a record win that blew away the previous high water mark by more than ten points.
What does it mean when turnout collapses, and Trump’s vote share increases at the same time? Is it a sign of strength or weakness? Does it mean anything at all?
Let’s unpack this dynamic with an astronomical analogy.
Think about your old science class where you learned about a giant star collapsing into a black hole. When the star collapses, it gets smaller, but denser and heavier. The smaller it becomes, the heavier it becomes. Political parties function in exactly the same manner with regards to extremism. The smaller they become, the more extreme they become. Pure parties are always small, but then again, it isn’t necessarily the size of a political party that determines their capacity to take power. What matters most is intensity and commitment. Trump has simultaneously stoked devotion and apathy. The two opposing forces can be a potent combination in a political campaign.
There is only one state ahead where Donald Trump seems vulnerable to a defeat: New Hampshire. After that, his leads are massive — and overwhelmingly so in the home states of his remaining opponents, DeSantis and Haley.
Donald Trump stands at the edge of the Republican nomination without much campaigning and 91 felony indictments pending against him. His campaign message is explicit. He is running to punish his enemies and rule without restraint. The United States stands at a dangerous hour.
There is a great deal of commentary that suggests the collapse of turnout means Trump is in trouble. Maybe, but where is the evidence of intensity within the opposition? Every poll has suggested the American people don’t want the coming rematch between Trump and Biden. What the Iowa numbers suggest is that Trump is benefiting from the merger of fanatical and apathetic wings of the electorate. It is all he needs to win. Apathy will be lethal in 2024. The republic won’t survive it.
There seems to be a great deal of focus and commentary among people who opine about politics for a living about the Trump victory that seems to minimize it, though they have never actually worked on a winning presidential campaign. This is a mistake. His victory was historic. Apathy and frigid temperatures may have caused it, but a win is a win, and his was the biggest in the history of the Iowa caucuses.
The extremist movement in America is better funded, organized and led than it has ever been. It aims to win and take power. Then it will seek control. Next comes punishment. The sad thing about it all is that it doesn’t take a very great effort to win when pushing up against the thin walls where apathy and ignorance live. The cost of losing to Donald Trump will be higher than most Americans can possibly imagine. It would be best if the apathy around the prospect fades before the disaster arrives. Make no mistake. It is coming. We need to do something about it.
“Apathy will be lethal in 2024. The republic won’t survive it.”
Agreed Steve, I would also add stupidity. The youth vote is in jeopardy because of the emotional reaction to the casualties in the Israel/Palestinian war; as though Trump would have been more amenable to the plight of the Palestinians. Did these people forget that Trump’s biases led to the creation of more settlements, violence and crackdowns on the Palestinians in both Gaza and The West Bank?
Or the environmentalists who don’t think Biden isn’t doing enough. Stein and the Green Party derailed Hillary’s victory and we ended up with a guy who ran, not to win, but to create more money and fame for himself. How’d that work out for America?
Since at least 40% of American’s are being brainwashed daily on social media and right-wing media outlets, it’s up to the 60% of us who are left, to push Biden over the finish line.
Complacency and apathy are the true enemy, so vote blue, volunteer and show America we will not be defeated by a bunch of religious fanatics and white nationalists who are holding this nation hostage.
And if you thought the last Trump administration was bad, it can get worse; much worse, so let’s not test the theory. Vote blue! Tell everyone you know who believes in democracy and civil rights, to vote blue and let’s not stop until Biden is reelected.
One thing - and (as you can see by my writing i am NO Einstein) but (i do speak several languages)
ONE THING - If the United states does not start HIGHLIGHTING and putting money into serious EDUCATION ? You are DOOMED. DOOMED. When I watch those Trump rally interviews? That is some very scary shit right there. These people are DUMB ASSES and they are wallowing in it. Those who want to be in power? the Wealthy (not as stupid) are manipulating the dumb dumbs...its very obvious. Stupid, is so easily led ..
And, republicans really want it that way. They want to have the majority of this country..remain stupid ..and that is scary