World War III: a sequel we don't want to see

In October, I made the point that the coming election will be decided by events that haven’t yet occurred, in a contest between two men around whom there is nothing new to learn.

Such an event transpired at the corner of Jordan and Syria at an American military base known as Tower 22. Three American were killed in action, and more than 30 were wounded in an attack by Iranian-controlled forces.

I write often about what might happen next in an unfolding story that has gone on for more than seven years. The United States and the world have been transformed during the first decades of the 21st century. It is clear that the American-led global order that emerged from the ruin of World War II, and prevailed during the long twilight struggle of the Cold War, is coming undone. Deterrence is failing. Ambitious dictators are feeling emboldened in a new era in which they assess America as weak, decaying and indifferent. The American people are deeply divided. The American government is epically dysfunctional. The western alliance is filled with armies that are poorly equipped, trained, and absolutely unprepared to fight. Don’t take my word for it. The comments below are incredible and come from a British general, as reported in The Guardian last Wednesday:

General Sir Patrick Sanders said that the UK needed to broadly follow Stockholm’s example and take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”. Such action was “not merely desirable, but essential.”

The foundations for “national mobilisation” could not be confined to countries neighbouring or close to Russia, and as a result ordinary people in the UK would be forced to join the UK’s 74,110 full-time regular army to see off an active threat to mainland Europe.

He said: “We will not be immune and as the prewar generation we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them.”

Sometimes it is helpful for me to look back a few months to see whether what I have written has held up against the reality of events. I try not to think about what I write as predictions, which are little more than dressed-up guesses. I try to make projections about what is coming on the basis of what has happened, and where the consequences will fall. More than anything else, I think the broad detachment in our culture between the concept of consequences following actions is what has changed more than anything else. Truly, if I was a CNN host my most frequently asked question and follow up to the overwhelming majority of senators, congressmen and women, governors, military officers, cabinet members, CEOs, journalists and anyone else would be this — preceded by a long, awkward, pregnant pause:

“What did you think was going to happen?”

Here is what I published on October 7, 2023, prior to learning about the Hamas attack on Israeli children, babies, grandparents, women and young people:

Here is what I wrote the following day, October 8, 2023:

One hundred and fourteen days have passed since the attack. CNN’s Peter Bergen describes the current situation as follows:

The burgeoning regional conflict now involves 10 countries: Jordan, Iran, Israel, Syria, Pakistan, the US, the UK; Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen; and four major terrorist groups: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and ISIS.

Will this lead to World War III? I don’t know. I just know that for the first time in more than 50 years a plausible scenario for its beginning is at hand. These are dangerous days. There has been an explosion of loose talk in Washington, DC, by people who have demanded America strike back without a strategy, plan or any clue what happens next. In other words, they wish to follow the 21st century American practice of shoot first and plan later. Escalation will have consequences just as appeasing Iranian aggression will. There are two reasons countries start wars: (i) they believe they can succeed, or (ii) they think that the price is worth it.

American policy over the last 20 years has turned Iran into the dominant power in the Middle East. We shouldn’t be surprised to see them flex their muscle. It would be a welcome surprise if this nation exercised restraint and good judgement at the edge of an abyss, which we will enter largely alone.

Pay attention to events. What is unfolding matters a great deal. This isn’t an international version of Kevin McCarthy’s speakership fight. This is life and death.

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