Ron DeSantis’s laughable campaign is collapsing. His bewildered team of fascist amateurs are reeling after making first contact with ordinary Americans who have no interest in being cast as cosplay actors in the Tallahassee Mussolini’s war against the “woke mind virus.” It’s a good thing. His pending national humiliation is well deserved and absolutely earned. He will be remembered as a pimple on America’s rump, a latter day Scott Walker, overhyped and valued by the conflicted, out-of-touch and deluded media and political class.
One of the most bewildering aspects about the coverage of American politics is how many people appearing on TV posing as campaign experts have never worked on an actual political campaign — let alone at the presidential level. They have no clue what they are talking about. Most putative presidential candidates believe running for president is the same as running for governor or US Senate, albeit it at a different scale. The reality is that running for governor is like flying a Cessna, while running for president is like being an astronaut. The two have nothing to do with one another, aside from the common element of not occurring on terra firma.
The conventional wisdom, such as it is, is built around a media dogma that asserts that the country will get a choice it absolutely doesn’t want: the rematch between Trump and President Biden that I have previously called a national catastrophe.
Today, George Will, Washington Post opinion columnist, added his voice and wisdom to a speculative discussion around what will happen next. He is spot on when he says that the American people do not like being told what to do, or what they are going to do. It is antithetical to the national character. One of the reasons that so many political predictions have been so profoundly wrong in recent years is driven by the widening chasm between the sensibilities of the American people and a gilded political and media culture that lives apart from them and doesn’t understand their lives at all. This disconnect and distance make it very difficult for those same people to get a handle on what is happening in the country.
A few months back, I wrote the following about South Carolina Senator Tim Scott:
What I wrote about has started to happen. Major donors to Ron DeSantis like hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin know a loser when they see one. No matter how rich they are, these people don’t spend money on losing. It is who they are. They have no loyalty, affection or connection to DeSantis other than as a transaction that is about their self-interest. It’s a brutal world, and they are writing DeSantis off. Where will they go next?
The answer has always been Tim Scott, who is the only candidate in the MAGA/GOP primary who can beat Trump in Iowa, which is a caucus not a primary. Bob Vander Plaats is CEO of the Family Leader, a Christian conservative organization and household name in Iowa Republican politics. He is done with Trump, though he has not endorsed DeSantis either. Tim Scott, who can play the political Jesus game with the best of them, is the odds-on favorite to get Vander Plaats’s endorsement. When thinking about the Iowa caucuses it is always important to remember that on the Republican side Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee. and Rick Santorum all won the evangelical voter-dominated contest.
Can Tim Scott win in New Hampshire? Probably not. Who can? Chris Christie. What Christie needs is a Scott win in Iowa, the collapse of the Trump bubble, and position in a multi-candidate race as Trump’s most articulately brutal detractor and alternative. If Donald Trump goes down in the first two contests, Scott will win South Carolina and the Trump era will be over just like that. He will deflate like the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. The last people to see it coming will be the first to pronounce it as expected and inevitable. Who? The national political media industrial complex of pundits, consultants and access journalists.
While most of this will be completely lost on the political media it will not be on the Scott and Christie teams, which understand that DeSantis is finished and has no chance of recovery. Donald Trump may not show up for the first debate, but he is psychologically incapable of staying away from a stage and a camera for very long. He’ll be there by the second debate at the latest. When he does, he will be caught in a pincer attack with Scott and Christie hitting him on his flanks, while DeSantis withers and shrinks in plain sight.
I saw a Vivek Ramaswamy sign in Montecito, California, and I suspect that will be his high-water mark. Nikki Haley lacks character, principles and gravitas. Mike Pence is like one of the red-shirted Enterprise crewmen who used to beam to whatever planet with Captain Kirk for the sole purpose of being the first person killed by whatever alien entity Kirk would later thwart. In essence, he exists to lose. Mike Pence will always have this consolation. He has broken down a seemingly impenetrable barrier by proving that even America’s biggest sycophant can run for the highest office in the land. Apparently the decrepit Rupert Murdoch has found a new attraction after his most recent marriage engagement collapsed into a cloud of smoke and tears like Tucker Carlson’s show. He is tingling for a man in a Patagonia dad fleece to save the day from Virginia. Should Youngkin jump in, it will simply prove that even the stupidest amongst us can find great success at a hedge fund.
As it stands today, the Republican field has three contenders in it. They are Trump, Christie and Scott.
There is something important to remember when looking at a presidential primary. What matters is momentum, not current position.
Since Christie has jumped in, his position has gone in this direction: UP.
Since Scott has jumped in, his position has gone in this direction: UP.
Since DeSantis has jumped in, his position has gone in this direction: DOWN. It hasn’t stopped since.
The candidates who are moving UP will ultimately pass those who are moving DOWN.
That is how it works.
The MAGA candidate in the race is Trump. He is facing two imperfect GOP candidates who are fronting a political party that has been utterly corrupted and broken by Trump. The fall campaign leading into the early primaries will become a three-way race with Trump, Christie and Scott at the top. The distance between Labor Day and Thanksgiving will begin to clarify the race leading into the closing months of the primary run-up.
There is a profound disconnect between the race that is developing, and the one that is being covered. The Biden re-election campaign is premised on the belief that Trump will be the Republican nominee and that only Biden can beat him. What happens if Trump isn’t the nominee? What happens if the traditional two-party 17 state contest turns into a three-way race with 45 competitive states? Trust me when I tell you that the access political reporters covering this have no idea.
Broken institutions and corrupt systems lead to discontent in dynamic societies. America is certainly that. The seven-year Trump catastrophe has broken American politics and the notion that things will just keep going on as before seems deluded.
The election ahead is shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable ride. What is going to happen next? Who knows, but with regard to what has happened so far, it is playing out like I told you it would. Get low and paddle. Big rapids ahead.
I have underestimated Joe Biden in the past and he has proven me wrong multiple times. I think Joe can win an election against anyone the Republicans choose as their candidate. The reason being the republican party does not have any palatable policies they can run on and Joe is on a winning streak. If the economy continues to soar and inflation continues to fall, I think Joe can overcome his age and win again. He has far exceeded my expectations, especially on foreign policy. He has recovered nicely since his shaky start with the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan. He has regained the high ground and is standing tall on the stage with NATO Allies. Give Joe his due and vote Blue in 24.
The image of Mike Pence as a Star Trek red-shirted crewman made me guffaw! 😂🤣